Norstat ratings: EKRE now most popular party in Estonia

EKRE chair Martin Helme.
EKRE chair Martin Helme. Source: Ken Mürk/ERR

The opposition Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) is clearly Estonia's most popular political party, according to Wednesday's latest aggregate results of the last four weeks of a poll organized by the nonprofit Institute for Societal Studies and pollster Norstat.

While support for EKRE and the coalition Reform Party was still nearly equal last week, as of this week, conservative support has clearly surpassed that of liberals. According to the latest results, EKRE has the support of 23.4 percent, the Reform Party 21.8 percent and the opposition Isamaa 17.9 percent of citizens with the right to vote.

Since the end of August, EKRE has polled steadily between 23-24 percent. Support for Reform, meanwhile, is on a downward trend. Within the span of a week, support for the prime minister's party fell by 1.2 percentage points; over the past four, it has fallen by 4.1 percentage points — and as of this week, this decline has put Reform second to EKRE in popularity, with the latter taking a lead of 1.6 percentage points over the senior coalition party.

Isamaa, meanwhile, continued to see support for the party rise for the eighth consecutive week, increasing by another 1.2 percentage points on week and a total of 8.1 percentage points over the past eight. This marks the highest level of support Isamaa has seen in party ratings since the start of 2019, when Norstat first started conducting its party preference surveys.

Isamaa currently trails Reform by 3.9 and EKRE by 5.5 percentage points.

The top three most popular parties in Estonia are followed in turn by the opposition Center Party with 15 percent, the coalition Social Democratic Party (SDE) with 10.2 percent and coalition Eesti 200 with 6.3 percent support.

Support for Center has fallen 3.6 percentage points over the past seven weeks.

The line graph below shows the relative changes in party support levels since Norstat started compiling its surveys in their current format. (Key: yellow = Reform; green = Center; black = EKRE; royal blue = Isamaa; red = SDE; light blue = Eesti 200; light green = Estonian Greens; orange = Parempoolsed.)

Beyond the top three, support for the country's other parties didn't see any significant changes on week; even Center's drop in support has come to a halt for now.

Estonia's coalition parties — Reform, Eesti 200 and the SDE — currently have the support of a combined 38.3 percent of respondents. Opposition parties EKRE, Isamaa and Center, meanwhile, command a combined 56.3 percent support.

The Institute of Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut) and Norstat Eesti AS poll participants regarding their party preferences on a weekly basis, presenting their findings based on the aggregate results of the most recent four weeks' polls.

The margin of error is determined based on the proportional size of the largest group. In the survey in question, EKRE supporters accounted for the largest group, with a margin of error of ± 1.6 percent. The margin of error is smaller for other parties' ratings, including ± 0.92 percent for Eesti 200, for example.

The latest aggregate results reflect data from surveys conducted from September 18-25, September 26 - October 2, October 3-9 and October 10-13, in which a combined 4,000 voting-age citizens of Estonia were polled.

In order to ensure as representative a sample as possible, participants were polled by combined method, i.e. by phone and online.


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Editor: Aili Vahtla

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