While the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) polled highest of any of Estonia's six parties represented at the Riigikogu, according to one recent survey, when looked at from the perspective of a single week, Isamaa in fact comes out on top.
The poll, conducted by Norstat, is held every week but Norstat aggregates that week's results together with those of the preceding three weeks when presenting its results, though it also publishes the week-by-week ratings.
Those results put EKRE ahead by less than one percentage point, and showed both Reform and Eesti 200 as having lost support – those coalition partners lie in third and sixth place respectively, according to Norstat.
However, when taking the results of the past week alone, not only is Isamaa ahead of EKRE – both parties are in opposition – but Reform and Eesti 200 have fallen even further down in the ratings.
The results for the smallest coalition party, the Social Democrats (SDE), and for the third opposition party, Center, remain largely unchanged.
The most recent week's Norstat survey, polling 1,000 Estonian citizens of voting age between October 30 and November 6 inclusive, as Isamaa poll at 25.6 percent, and EKRE at 24.1 percent.
This compares with 23.2 percent for EKRE over the four-week period, and a 22.4 percent rating for Isamaa over the same time-frame.
Support for the prime minister's Reform Party fell to 16.7 percent, which put them in third place ahead of the Center Party. The Center Party's support in the weekly survey was 14.3 percent.
Reform lay in third place on 16.7 percent of support when taken on the single most recent week's results (cf. 19 percent over the preceding four weeks), and Center polled at 14.3 percent for the week (practically unchanged on its four-week rating of 14.5 percent).
SDE, in coalition with Reform and Eesti 200, polled at 9.2 percent, again a fairly stable rating when compared with the four-week figure (9.9 percent).
Meanwhile Eesti 200 saw its rating slip even further based on the past week alone; whereas over four weeks the party polled at 6.1 percent according to Norstat, on the week October 30-November 6, it polled at 5 percent, exactly the threshold needed to win seats in any constituency under Estonia's modified d'Hondt system of proportional representation.
The support of the Social Democratic Party was 9.2 percent, and Estonia 200 had 5.0 percent, which is exactly the election threshold.
Norstat claims a margin of error of no more than +/-3.1 percent in its surveys over a single week, and no higher than +/-1.55 percent over the four weeks.
The line graph below shows the relative changes in party support levels since Norstat started compiling its surveys in their current format. (Key: Yellow = Reform, green = Center, black = EKRE, royal blue = Isamaa, red = SDE, light blue = Eesti 200, light green = Estonian Greens, orange = Parempoolsed.)
The two tables following show recent weeks' results for the aggregated four weeks (Erakondade toetusprotsent (4 nädala koondtulemused), followed by the weekly results (iganädalased tulemused).
Kombineeritud küsitluse tulemusi saab lugeda siit.
Norstat compiles its surveys on behalf of think-tank the Institute of Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut).
Editor: Andrew Whyte