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Ratings: Isamaa support rises further still

Isamaa congress in Viljandi, November 2023.
Isamaa congress in Viljandi, November 2023. Source: Olev Kenk/ERR

Support for opposition party Isamaa continues to rise, while the Reform Party is still seeing a small decline in its rating, according to a recent survey.

The poll, conducted on a weekly basis by Norstat and commissioned by conservative think-tank the Institute of Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut), and aggregated over a four-week period, finds that nearly twice as many respondents, at 61.7 percent, support one of the three opposition parties – Isamaa, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) or the Center Party – than back one of the coalition partners: Reform, Eesti 200 or the Social Democrats (SDE).

By party, Isamaa once again polled highest at 26.2 percent, considerably higher than its performance at the March Riigikogu election, when it won eight seats.

The latest result is also 1.7 percentage points higher than that from a week ago, according to Norstat.

EKRE come in in second place on 22.2 percent, with Reform third, at 17.6 percent. Converse to the state of affairs with Isamaa, Reform's rating is notably poorer than its showing in March, when the party won 37 seats.

Both EKRE and Reform saw a fall in support – EKRE by 1.4 percentage points on week, Reform by 0.5 percentage points.

The prime minister's party had polled at 24.4 percent at the start of October, according to Norstat.

The "top" three parties are followed by Center (13.3 percent of support in the latest Norstat survey), SDE (10.3 percent) and Eesti 200 (5.8 percent).

Eesti 200 and SDE saw negligible falls in support (by 0.3 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points respectively), while Center saw a similarly small gain, at 0.3 percentage points on the week.

Eesti 200 is at least above the 5 percent threshold required to win seats in any constituency and at any direct election in Estonia.

Of the major parties not currently represented at the Riigikogu, Parempoolsed picked up 2.3 percent of support, slightly above the 2 percent threshold required to receive state support (the party polled above this level when it mattered, at the elections back in March), while the Estonian Greens (Rohelised) attracted the support of 1.3 percent of respondents to the Norstat survey.

The latest aggregated results cover the period October 23 to November 17 inclusive. The recent election of Margus Tsahkna as Eesti 200's new leader, and reelection of Kaja Kallas as Reform chair, took place just after the survey period and so have had no effect on the current Norstat results.

The line graph below illustrates changes in party support levels since Norstat started compiling its surveys, in early 2019. (Key: Yellow = Reform, green = Center, black = EKRE, royal blue = Isamaa, red = SDE, light blue = Eesti 200, light green = Estonian Greens, orange = Parempoolsed).

The tables below that show the four-week aggregate figures Erakondade toetusprotsent (4 nädala koondtulemused ) and weekly figures (Iganädalased tulemused ) fore each party also (Key: Eesti Keskerakond = Center Party; Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond = EKRE; Eesti Reformierakond = Reform; Sotisiaaldemokraatlik Erakond = SDE; Erakond Eesti Rohelised = Greens; Eesti Vabaerakond = Free Party (now defunct); Elurikkuse Erakond = Richness of Life; Muu = Other parties).

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Editor: Andrew Whyte, Mari Peegel

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