Kannik told the "Ringvaade" talk show that USA's $60.8 billion aid package is probably enough to help Ukraine last another year in the war. However, this is contingent on aid promised by Europe also reaching Ukraine in time.

"I believe it removes the risk of the front line collapsing in late summer or fall," the expert remarked.

Kannik said that U.S. officials have suggested a part of weapons aid might reach Ukraine next week.

"American officials have said on numerous occasions that a considerable part of aid is already in Europe, likely in Poland, and will reach Ukraine as soon as President Biden signs the bill into law. Ideally, we could see a part of it reach Ukraine later this week. And I believe that this means it will arrive at the front in a week's time," Kannik suggested.

He also said that the U.S. will likely not make aid available to Ukraine all at once.

The ICDS director said that Ukraine mainly needs air defenses, air defense munitions and artillery munitions, which should help slow the advance of Russian forces.

Kannik suggested that U.S. aid comes as unpleasant news for Moscow which likely hoped to put Ukraine in a bad enough situation by year's end to be able to negotiate a very unfavorable ceasefire or achieve a complete military victory.

"I believe that if they take a frank look at the situation, they'll realize that this will not happen by the end of this year. And that means a continued war of attrition for both sides. The Russian economy is not doing all that well, and its reserves have decreased considerably."

Western capitals need to change their strategic thinking

Indrek Kannik said on "Ringvaade" that Europe has been taking its own steps to help Ukraine and raised the stakes while waiting for the U.S. package. For example, the EU has pledged €50 billion in aid over three years, while Germany has promised to give Ukraine Patriot air defense systems. But the expert added that Europe must get its defense industry off the ground.

He also said that Ukraine will likely take delivery of its first F-16 fighters in the next few months, which will help keep Russian aircraft away from the front line.

One reason Ukrainian forces have been forced to pull back in recent months has come in the form of glide bombs dropped from Russian aircraft, Kannik suggested. "And the Russians have managed to drop them quite accurately and close to the front line because Ukrainian air defenses aren't as strong anymore. I believe that a solution will be found in the near future and Russian planes forced to keep their distance again," he said.

But the expert also noted that what has been pledged for Ukraine is not enough for it to win the war.

"For that, Ukraine will need to carry out a successful mobilization and train those new units. And above all, there needs to take place a shift in strategic thinking in Washington and European capitals – the fear of Russia actually losing this war needs to be conquered. This has not happened in Washington and Berlin yet," he suggested.

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