Expert: U.S. foreign policy to remain on isolationist path for a while longer
The positive resolution of the latest U.S. aid package for Ukraine does little to change the fact that a considerable part of Republicans in Congress remain opposed to helping Ukraine and the U.S. is rather going down the isolationist path in its foreign policy, U.S. expert Andreas Kaju said.
The Saturday vote on the Ukraine aid package in the House of Representatives sparked jubilation, but experts say it does not signal a shift in politicians' attitudes. A significant portion of Republicans oppose the U.S. participating in military aid or more direct interventions in the near future.
"It is part of a more isolationist trend that has influenced American politics for the last 10-15 years, reflecting the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. And it will remain so for some time," said U.S. expert Andreas Kaju.
How much Iran's attack on Israel influenced the U.S. vote remains a mystery, Kaju mentioned. It is not known what other representatives and intelligence agency heads told House Speaker Mike Johnson and key committees in recent weeks' meetings.
"Among them, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Mike McCaul, who played a very crucial role in getting the speaker and his team behind this decision. Speaker Johnson even used a phrase a few days ago, saying after these briefings he is convinced that Iran, China and Russia form an axis of evil," Kaju explained.
The role of the Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump, who gave his support to Speaker Johnson a week ago, remains uncertain. Clarity might come from how Trump speaks about Ukraine in the near future.
However, a six-month pause in U.S. aid has cost Ukraine the city of Avdiivka, or 130-140 square kilometers of territory, said Reserve Col. Hannes Toomsalu. What is more, the exhaustion of air defense munitions led to the loss of a power station. Not to mention thousands of soldiers. The question remains as to how much American aid could overshadow Russian leader Vladimir Putin's May 9 parade.
"The Americans have already transported a lot of material to Europe in relation to military exercises. Likely within a week, some of that ammunition might reach the Ukrainians as well. So, it could indeed overshadow the event. It's not easy for the Russians to advance from Chasiv Yar. There's a relatively large and wide canal in the way," Toomsalu explained.
Europe must also take more proactive steps. Andreas Kaju believes that there has been a shift in the politics of Germany and France – the increase in defense budgets last year is likely to continue in the future. According to Kaju, European leaders have realized that they need to prepare not only for Trump's potential return but also for a different defense posture.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski
