Colonel: Russia prepared to risk using tactical air force again

Russian troops have managed to make headway near Chasiv Yar due to Ukraine's ammunition shortage and because Russia is more prepared to use its tactical air forces again, said Col. Mart Vendla, deputy head of the EDF Headquarters.
Vendla said on the "Ukraina stuudio" talk show that the reasons why Russian forces have managed to move forward from Bakhmut to surround Chasiv Yar are prosaic.
"As we know, U.S. arms aid has been stuck virtually since last October, with the latest major package of supplies delivered in March, meaning that Ukraine's ammunition has been limited to say the least. Russia has wasted no time taking advantage. Losing Avdiivka in mid-February and the Russians reaching Chasiv Yar clearly has to do with ammunition shortages and the Russian side's preparedness to risk using tactical air power again."
The colonel explained that when the full-scale war started, Ukraine managed to close its airspace, which left Russian attack planes largely grounded.
"Massive use of gliding bombs has now opened the door to mid-altitude flights, and it shows. We know it from Homs, Palmira, Syria where those same bombs sowed death and destruction," Vendla noted.
The Ukrainians this week shot down a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber. Col. Vendla said that while downing a single bomber will not cripple Russia's aerial capacity, it has considerable effect.
"If we consider that the Russians should only have around 60 Tu-22M3s, and only half of them are equipped with precision navigation and bombing software, losing a single one comes with a price tag of $250-300 million. So bringing down that plane was money well spent."
The colonel suggested that Russian forces are taking advantage of a window of time during which Ukraine is waiting for new U.S. aid and is forced into a defensive position.
"Russian forces have been pushing hard since the start of the year, and looking at the numbers, there are around a hundred contact points today because Russia knows the Ukrainians do not have the ammunition to fire back and stop these so-called cannon fodder attacks," Vendla said.
He suggested that the Russian side will probably continue making extensive use of glide bombs because Ukrainian air defenses have been weakened.
The colonel said that the devastation caused by a glide bomb that hits its target is dozens of times what artillery can do. "We're talking about three kilograms of explosive mass in the case of 122-millimeter bombs, while it can be six or even eight kilograms for the 155-millimeter ones. And talking about the FAB-1500, it's 700 kilograms [of explosives]," Vendla said, adding that Russian forces dropped 250 glide bombs every day during the siege of Avdiivka.
Vseviov: U.S. aid package sends Putin the signal he's wrong
Jonatan Vseviov, secretary general of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said on "Ukraina stuudio" that the fact the U.S. House of Representatives approved the next Ukrainian aid package tells Putin he's wrong if he thinks the West is unable to stay its course.
"The fact the aid package was approved is a sign that Putin's belief and hope that time is working in his favor is unfounded. It has always been based on this premise of the West being unable or unwilling to maintain its position," the secretary said, adding that wars may also end once capitals run out of strength or hope. Putin has believed all along that Europe cannot stand without the Americans, while the Americans cannot continue because of looming elections. "And we've said all along that he's wrong," Vseviov remarked.
"Now, we have delivered another strong message to tell him that he is mistaken," the official said, pointing out that the package was voted in with a similar majority compared to the previous round of U.S. aid. "So this conviction that support will dissipate, that our politicians are reluctant or tired... it's misguided. We know what we want and we will stay the course."
The latest U.S. aid package is worth approximately $61 billion, which Vseviov suggested will last Ukraine for a while.
"Of course, the money will largely remain in America so to speak, because we're talking about U.S. arms and ammunition procurements to offset current stocks than can then be made available to the Ukrainians. And as the Americans have said, these things are virtually sitting outside the warehouse, meaning that existing things can be shipped off to Ukraine right away."
He added that Europe has also done a lot of help Ukraine, and the U.S. aid package completements that. "Ukraine needs everything one needs in a war, and U.S. aid is helping Europe bear the burden."
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Editor: Merili Nael, Marcus Turovski