President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has suggested that Russia wants to take the strategically important city of Chasiv Yar before May 9. The city is crucial for Ukrainian logistics. But Lt. Col. Toomas Väli believes it to be unrealistic.

"They won't take it by May 9. Seeing as they've only gone ten kilometers after Avdiivka, moving perhaps five kilometers in one go, they won't get to Chasic Yar at this pace. And taking control of all of Chasiv Yar will be difficult, because it will be more slow-moving urban warfare, like in Avdiivka. Whereas taking control of Avdiivka, but also Bakhmut, took months," Väli explained.

He said that Russian forces are still trying to push past Avdiivka and Bakhmut to reach the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

One of the hottest stretches of the front is the village of Ocheretyne near Bakhmut where the Russian forces have managed to drive a wedge in Ukrainian defenses.

Väli said that Ocheteryne was an unfortunate case of the Ukrainians rotating their units, where the 115th Territorial Brigade was meant to take over from the 47th Brigade that had been stationed there for a year. And what happened during the rotation was that Russian forces managed to sneak in between minefields and cause panic in the units that had just arrived. "There is information to suggest the situation got out of hand, and the 47th, after removing its units, had to return and start retaking those positions," Väli explained.

The colonel suggested that this shows the enemy is cunning, aggressive and ready to take advantage of every opportunity, as well as that rotating actively engaged units is one of the most difficult things to do in war.

"It shows that the enemy is capable of delivering surprises on the so-called tactical level. It also shows, in terms of training, those elements where units are being replaced or are moving through one another's positions must come with so-called pioneer-technical solutions, such as closing gaps in minefields in a timely fashion, having enough guards posted, eyes on the situation – combat drills are crucially important. Also, units rotating in must be capable enough not to fall apart upon first contact with the enemy," the lieutenant colonel noted.

He said that new units must always include more experienced soldiers.

"These new units must have enough so-called veterans next to new recruits. It needs to be a sensible mix. The former is better at getting an overview of a situation and keeping it under control."

"We're waiting on more information of what happened exactly. The enemy is using it for psychological warfare purposes to show that the Ukrainian army can no longer maintain the front etc. That is not true. The small gains they've achieved have been on the tactical level. I see no operational breakthrough that could cause the Ukrainian front to collapse. Their engineering solutions and defensive lines are holding," Väli said.

The lieutenant colonel added that the situation at Ocheretyne was further complicated by the 47th having run out of 25-millimeter ammunition for its Bradley IFVs.

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