However, given Belarus' relatively small size, this is as much posturing as anything else.

At the same time, Propastop notes, it would not do to completely write off that country's military, and with that in mind, the site took a look at the situation on the ground there.

Lukashenko stated in a recent speech that that country has no need to join any military actions, and will not find that need in the future.

Lukashenko said that demands to do so are sometimes made by "hurrah-patriots," as they are sometimes referred to in the Russian media.

They also play into the NATO alliance's hands, Lukashenko claims.

"These calls to involve Belarus in the war in Ukraine – are to NATO's benefit," he said in the speech, as reported by Propastop.

"They are the ones who want and do everything to drag us into the war with Ukraine,' he continued.

If that happened, Lukashenko noted, the length of the front-line – given Ukraine and Belarus share a border – would increase by thousands of kilometers.

This would also leave Belarus' western frontier, with EU nations Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, as well as with Ukraine itself, exposed, he said.

"You and I would have to close this front if we enter the war. Can we do it? We cannot. This is what I'm telling you: we cannot. Do we want to bring problems on ourselves? No we don't. That's another matter. First and foremost perhaps Ukraine could make use of a peaceful Belarus in the way that Russia does today."

Despite the peaceful talk, however, President Alexander Lukashenko frequently participates in Kremlin-led information operations and often uses aggressive language, Propastop notes.

Most recently, he threatened to launch a "preemptive strike" against Lithuania – the capital of that country lies just over 30 kilometers from the Belarusian border - in response to perceived NATO threats.

Propastop says that from the reverse perspective, Ukraine has no desire to attack Belarus. At the same time, the latter's status as a host nation for Russian forces make it an area of interest for Ukraine.

The fact that there is currently no firing from within Belarusian territory does not mean that there are no Russian air defense or other systems hosted on Belarusian territory.

These are staffed by Belarusian personnel, an expert told Propastop.

Propastop thus also thought it timely to assess the real combat capabilities of the Belarusian army as it stands right now.

The Belarusian armed forces consist of approximately 65,000 personnel, a figure reported in 2016 which remains relevant assuming stable defense budgets.

Excluding civilian staff and trainee cadets, this encompasses 45,500 active soldiers and commanders (the Russian Federation by comparison has around a million active military personnel).

Since April 2022, Belarus has enhanced its combat training and readiness, indicating a formidable force that operates in coordination with the Russian military. This, the publication says, means its capability is not to be overlooked.

Sergei Grabski, a former Ukrainian Ministry of Defense employee and military expert, reports that about 30 percent of the Belarusian army is combat-ready, amounting to around 20,000 troops, Propastop says.

Publicly available data suggests Belarus has around 145,000 reservists and 55,000 territorial soldiers on its lists.

Despite a perceived lack of heavy equipment, the country reportedly possesses over tanks, over 300 of which are combat-ready.

"Ukraine understands based on economic calculations how much Belarusian fuel from Belarusian refineries is used by the Russian army. Attacks on Ukrainian territory were carried out from Belarusian territory. Belarus, as a country, provided full support to the Russian army," Grabski said.

Statistics-based website tracking defense-related info site Global Firepower annually ranks each country's military strength and its Index compares conventional warfare capabilities across land, sea, and air, using 50 different factors (exclusive of nuclear capabilities, which Belarus does not have).

As of 2024, Belarus ranks in strength 64th among 145 nations, down from 52nd in 2022.

Ukraine ranks 18th, an improvement from its 22nd in 2022, the year of the full-scale Russian invasion.

Russia remains the second most powerful military nation in the world, following the U.S.

Estonia is ranked 87th, the U.K., sixth on the list.

Many nations of course are gradually increasing their defense budgets due to the war in Ukraine.

Estonia's defense spend exceeding the 3 percent of annual GDP-mark for the first time this year has been widely reported; in absolute terms this amounts to €1.3 billion invested in defense.

The highest proportional spenders, and absolute spenders in the case of the Americans, of the NATO 31 are Poland at 3.9 percent of GDP, the US at 3.49 percent and Greece at just over 3 percent.

For many decades a sensitive issue, the defense spend by Germany is also set increase this year, to 2 percent of GDP.

Lithuania, new NATO member Finland, Romania, Hungary, Latvia, Slovakia, and defensive stalwart the U.K. have also surpassed the 2 percent threshold, Propastop reports.

Back to Belarus; as with many post-Soviet states, that country inherited significant military equipment from the Soviet Union, not least the significant Belarusian Military District.

The Belarusian armed forces comprise ground, air, and special operations forces, all overseen by the General Staff.

Belarus maintains three airbases, and has several air defense units equipped with S-200, S-300, BUK, Tor-MK, and Osa-AKM surface-to-air missile systems.

At the same time, the Belarusian war machine is equipped with outdated Soviet-era tanks and vehicles, with over 1,200 tanks theoretically deployable but many in reserve without crews.

The country's military doctrine is strictly a defensive one, prohibiting offensive operations from its territory. '

In 2007, the special operations forces were separated from the ground forces and, since then have been a distinct unit with a personnel strength of 4000-6000, none of them reservists.

Most notoriously, some of these personnel actively participated in suppressing the mass democratic protests following the August 2020 presidential elections in Belarus.

At the same time, the very special nature of these personnel is, relatively speaking, a weakness in sense, Propastop reports, while the special forces remain the only military units the Belarusian leadership can fully rely on, in terms of both loyalty and capability, compared with regular but more heavily-equipped troops.

The Belarusian armed forces are training diligently in trying to integrate Russian army experiences, as well, political analyst Artyom Shraibman notes, while there are signs of increased mobilization there too.

Security expert Rainer Saks concurred that Belarus supports Russian aggression, albeit in a more restrained manner and characterized by itss decision to allow Russian forces to use Belarusian territory as a jumping off point for the initial invasion in February 2022 and for hosting missile launchers trained on Ukraine.

Training facilities and recruitment, even from inside Belarus itself, also take place in Balrus, he said.

The Lukashenko regime's avoidance of direct involvement is likely due to the poor condition its military equipment and training, as well as widespread public opposition to the invasion, Saks noted.

Facing increasing risks, Lukashenko had also decided to halt the active presence of Russian military activities in Belarus.

Ultimately, Propastop reports, the Belarusian leaders efforts to present himself as a potential mediator between Ukraine and Russia are unlikely to be successful, simply due to the dominance of the latter country.

The full Propastop piece, which utilizes figures sourced from public data, analyses by think tanks, and reports from the Belarusian Ministry of Defense, is here.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!