On Saturday, politicians who were expelled from or left the Conservative People's Party (EKRE) announced the founding of a new party named Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid) or ERK.

Henn Põlluaas, a member of ERK's founding group, stated on "Terevisioon" that the new party aims to fill the gap between Isamaa and EKRE on the Estonian political landscape and that there is a societal demand for this new party.

According to Ott Lumi, it is too early to assess the success of the new party. "Currently, it is a group of people leaving EKRE. To evaluate whether there is a serious new party perspective, it should be assessed at least six months from now," he said.

Lumi noted that the party does not yet have a defined place in Estonian politics. "I don't see that place. The EKRE brand is so strong that, at present, I don't see any point for this party because we don't know what its ideological points are," he said.

He believes there is too much emphasis on opposing EKRE when Isamaa already exists for conservative voters. "If it's like EKRE light, people still want the real EKRE, and if people no longer want EKRE, they don't want EKRE. In that sense, I don't see any perspective for this breakaway group," Lumi added.

Lumi also mentioned that ERK lacks strong leaders who could attract voters in the long term. "Currently, I don't see any great leaders there who are alternatives to EKRE. Jaak Madison is undoubtedly a political leader with his own capital, but this seems to be short-term communication rather than a strategic plan on his part. Right now, it looks like anti-EKRE rather than a large and independent plan," he said.

The new party has promised to differentiate itself in terms of political discourse style, with both Põlluaas and Jaak Valge emphasizing that the party's strength will be polite and honest communication.

However, Lumi believes that merely promising to remain polite is unlikely to attract voters. "I don't see this niche being filled by merely polite communication. Although there is some theoretical logic. If we look at the Nordic and Scandinavian politics, the local EKREs have indeed mainstreamed themselves and have managed to stay relevant longer," he explained.

Lumi added that the departure of well-known politicians like Jaak Madison, Henn Põlluaas and Jaak Valge does not significantly impact EKRE, as the core of EKRE remains the Helme family.

Still, the impact of founding a new party on EKRE's support and fortunes should not be underestimated. "I think it certainly affects their ratings at the moment, but those who have embraced EKRE's hardcore approach and rhetoric will not disappear. Now the question is how many people have been frightened off by this process – it's hard to say," Lumi added.

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