Expert: ERK might turn into a serious political party after a few years
Several former members of the Conservative People's Party (EKRE) are planning to establish a new political party in Estonia called Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (ERK). Kantar Emor polling expert Aivar Voog believes that ERK could turn into a serious political party in a few years' time.
Voog said that EKRE sliding in the polls follows infighting at the party, which recently culminated in prominent members being evicted or leaving. According to the expert, whether EKRE's rating will stop falling depends on whether the wave of departures is over.
"Should it continue, should there be more news that someone has left or is about to leave, or that the party has lost most of its members in a given region, it would surely extend the slump," Voog noted.
Over the last ten days, over 500 of EKRE's more than 9,000 members have left the far-right party, including Jaak Madison, Henn Põlluaas and Jaak Valge who are planning to found a new political party called Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (Eesti Rahvuslased ja Konservatiivid) or ERK for short.
"My view as a founding member is that the party will be based on the principle of national integrity, meaning that we treat all Estonians and Estonian residents who are loyal to Estonia as our people. /.../ Mass immigration is the biggest threat to our nation. We see the Social Democrats as our [main] competitors," said ERK founding group members Jaak Valge.
To initiators want to collect at least 1,000 signatures in support and have so far collected a little under 200 requests to join the new party. Aivar Voog suggested that it will be a few years before ERK can be considered a serious party.
"Looking at the combined rating of Isamaa and EKRE, it is around 40 percent, meaning that there are plenty of people in Estonia willing to back conservative forces. /.../ The deciding factor will be clarity of positions and credibility in the eyes of voters," the expert said.
EKRE leader Martin Helme does not perceive the incoming party as a threat. He recently said that while EKRE will have to settle for its rating suffering in the coming weeks or months, things should bounce back come autumn.
Helme admitted there are tensions between the two camps and that there can be no talk of rapprochement. "Looking at appearances in the media from last week, it seems those who left were the rantipoles and misbehavers."
Should ERK fail to engage voters, EKRE's rating will probably bounce back before summer's end, Voog said.
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Editor: Merili Nael, Marcus Turovski
