Kantar Emor conducted its recent poll June 10-17. In-house tensions at EKRE came to light on June 9 when party leader Martin Helme said on his Tre Raadio talk show "Räägime asjast" that Silver Kuusik, Jaak Valge and Henn Põlluaas are planning a coup in EKRE. The trio was kicked out of the party on the evening of June 11, while EKRE MEP Jaak Madison said he'd quit the next day. The entire row and split happened inside the polling period.

As forecast by Martin Helme, these events affected EKRE's rating, which has fallen from 18 percent in late May to 13 percent, good enough for fifth place. The last time support for the far-right party was this low was in September 2020.

Isamaa opens up clear lead again, Parempoolsed coming up

Opposition Isamaa continues as the most popular political force, its rating hitting 27 percent, up from 23 percent a month ago, in the wake of European elections and infighting at EKRE.

The Social Democratic Party (SDE), which was the only other party besides Isamaa to land two European Parliament seats, is in second place on 18 percent. Support for the party has fluctuated between 14 and 18 percent for the last four months.

The ruling Reform Party is in third on 16 percent, down from 19 percent in May. It's similarly unstable position has been affected by criticism of the government, tensions inside the party and a modest European elections result where Reform lost a mandate.

Support for the Center Party has started edging up among Russian-speaking Estonians to land on 58 percent in June. Its overall rating is 14 percent.

The non-parliamentary Parempoolsed put in a record showing of 8.4 percent in June, while junior coalition partner Eesti 200's rating of 2.6 percent was last this low when it was founded in 2018.

The Estonian Greens have the support of 1 percent of potential voters.

The coalition's combined rating is 36 percent versus the opposition's 54 percent.

Support with the "cannot say" vote factored in

In June, 24 percent of respondents did not have a clear political preference, with the share of undecided voters down from last month's 27 percent.

With the "cannot say" votes factored in, Isamaa has a rating of 21 percent, SDE 13 percent and Reform Party 12 percent. Center and EKRE both have 10 percent, Parempoolsed 7 percent and Eesti 200 2 percent.

Support by voter group

The poll also revealed that SDE is more popular among women, while EKRE supporters include more men.

The Social Democrats are also popular in the two youngest age groups (18-24 and 25-34 years), with Isamaa coming out on top in all other age groups.

Isamaa has a rating of 32 percent among Estonian-speaking voters, followed by Reform (19 percent) and SDE (18 percent). Support for EKRE among Estonians has dropped to 15 percent.

Center is the most popular choice of non-Estonians speakers (58 percent), while SDE is also gaining ground (16 percent).

The Center Party is also the most popular in the capital Tallinn on 32 percent and in Ida-Viru County 29 percent. Isamaa tops all other regions.

Kantar Emor polled 1,557 voting-age citizens over the phone and online June 10-17. The maximum possible margin of error is +- 2.2 percent.

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