Tõnis Saarts: EKRE and Eesti 200 deja vu

Regularly keeping an eye on politics, it's easy to get the sense that something like this has already happened and that you are tuning in to a more grotesque version of past events. Both EKRE and Eesti 200, as very different political animals, have offered up such deja-vu moments in the weeks following European elections, Tõnis Saarts finds.
The goings-on at the Conservative People's Party (EKRE) resemble the inner dynamics of the Center Party under Edgar Savisaar, while Eesti 200 tends to follow former political newcomer Res Publica's fate. But there are also a number of significant differences, which makes comparing these developments especially intriguing.
Let us start with the parallel between EKRE and Savisaar's Center Party. After all, both parties follow a strikingly similar logic. The party is centered around a charismatic leader or group – in EKRE's case the [Helme] family. And this kind of leader-centric model promises success at first. The party does well at elections and even makes the government, while it turns out over time that the style of its leaders and its values are unacceptable in the eyes of potential coalition partners in Estonia's multiparty system, and the party is pushed into political isolation. The first setbacks at elections make more ambitious members feel that the party needs a change of pace that goes beyond cosmetic. What follows is ugly infighting and a split. Still, most members remain loyal to the leader or leading family. The party stays its course, if a little worse for wear, and ends up radicalizing further. Schisms and splits may become a recurring phenomenon. Savisaar's Center Party went through at least four major splits, and it is very doubtful EKRE's recent storm will be its last.
This brings us to three important differences between the Helmes' party and what the Center Party used to be. First, Center had a much wider gamut of core voters than EKRE does today, which allowed it to remain a major political force with 20-25 percent of the vote despite its splits. Second, and more importantly, Martin Helme's charisma and services to the Estonian state in no way match those of Edgar Savisaar. It is enough to look at the politicians' performance at Riigikogu and local elections. While Martin Helme's personal record is around 6,000 votes, many still remember Savisaar taking 30,000-40,000 votes per election. Third, ruling in Tallinn gave Savisaar access to powerful administrative resources he could use to "grow" new political allies and make sure the party served as a seedbed of the elite. Where can EKRE do something like that? In summary, if the Helmes wish to cultivate the Savisaarian leadership philosophy where they equal the party, a lot more care needs to be taken.
Let us now come to the other deja-vu moment of recent political developments. What is happening at Eesti 200 has for a while been reminiscent of what Res Publica went through a few decades ago. Both new parties put in a good result at elections and made the parliament after the relatively vague promise of remaking Estonian politics. Res Publica promised a completely new and ethical political style, while Eesti 200 said it has a long plan for Estonia. Remarkably, both managed to avoid the Free Party's naive idealism as well as to include in their ranks people who had experience and a feel for how politics really happens. Neither was saved by it. Upon making the government, the parties still went through a rough reality check, and as the novelty wore off, both parties were revealed to have very little in terms of actual ideology at their cores. No one understood Res Publica's brand of "nurturing conservatism," while Eesti 200's long plan is increasingly inconsequential as tougher geopolitical and economic reality is working to visibly constrain our choices.
We do not know the fate of Eesti 200, while it already differs from Res Publica in two key aspects. First, Res Publica made efforts to build up a party organization, which gave them 8 percent of the vote at the 2005 local elections even when the party was already in its death throes. Eesti 200 has been neglecting expanding its organization in recent years, and it will quite likely come back to bite them at the next local elections. Secondly, Res Publica's ideological goals were even murkier than Eesti 200's are today. In the case of the latter, it is at least clear we're dealing with a liberal party, while no one has yet managed to credibly explain to the public the difference between the Reform Party's brand of liberalism and that of Eesti 200.
So, politics keeps offering up deja-vu moments, while instead of reruns, they are more akin to interpretative theater where new troupes perform the same play in new and innovative ways and settings.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski