Politics is not all technocracy, with emotions and symbols playing an equally important part. The Reform Party needs a credible enemy image to win elections as it has been the case since 2007 that in additional to selling growth, the party has succeeded in creating a moderate sense of anxiety in Estonia's liberal middle-class of pro-Kremlin and populist forces coming to power unless they turn out and vote Reform, with Estonia's success story as we know it suffering as a result.

Now, the Reform Party faces a serious problem. As a result of their opponents' ineptitude and miscalculations by leaders, the Center Party and EKRE, as Reform's traditional rivals, have faded to a point where intimidating people with their imminent rise to power would simply not be credible. While the general elections are still three years in the future, one would be hard-pressed to imagine the two forces, the downward tends of which are perhaps best described as "progressive peripheralization," returning to their former glory.

While Center may find some success at local elections next year, it is clear that the party has no business in the premiere league of Estonian politics for as long as Mihhail Kõlvart's Center fails to engage Estonian-speaking voters to the same extent it proved possible when Jüri Ratas was chairman. What is more, looking at the extremely cautious rhetoric of Center's current leaders, it would be rather difficult to paint them as decidedly pro-Kremlin or a monstrosity able to rival the Center Party of the Edgar Savisaar era.

It seems just as unlikely that the Conservative People's Party (EKRE) will soon return to a rating of 25 percent in the polls.

The party's recent "night of the long knives" sent conservative voters quite a clear signal: it is no longer enough to just sport national conservative views to be an EKRE supporter as one also needs to be an admirer of the political talent and style of the Helme family. This will work to reduce the number of potential EKRE voters as many will find a preferable alternative in the up and coming Isamaa or the EKRE breakoff group Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives (ERK).

This leaves just two potential enemy images: Isamaa and the Social Democratic Party. The former's ideological nearness to Reform and the fact that Urmas Reinsalu has distanced the party from its "EKRE Light" image of the Helir-Valdor Seeder era makes it very difficult to portray them as a scary and illiberal force.

The Social Democrats seem to hold more potential for scaring the liberal, right-leaning middle-class. One could try and claim that in their zeal to redistribute, the Social Democrats want to rob the middle-class of their hard-earned income and give it to the poor. That they'll lay down progressive income tax and destroy the competitive advantages of the Estonian economy with their tax reforms. Furthermore, that their overspending will soon push Estonia into a Greece-like loan spiral with no way out.

While this may all seem credible in the eyes of potential Reform voters, there is a catch. A serious and terrifying enemy needs to be powerful and strong in which department SDE seems lacking. While the party has finally grown teeth under Lauri Läänemets and improved its say in the parliament by recruiting former Center members, SDE's former image of a weak and obedient partner will not be quick to dissipate.

Kristen Michal might turn out to be an effective prime minister who will succeed in improving Estonia's disastrous fiscal position, kickstarting growth and carrying out more than a few necessary reforms. But hoping that a considerable part of the electorate will deem it necessary to give Reform another four-year mandate based just on that might be a little optimistic. What's needed is fear of a much worse alternative should people not turn out to vote Reform. Unfortunately, fear is a stronger initiative than gratitude in the world of politics.

Therefore, Kristen Michal's success as party leader will not be measured based on how much he reduces fiscal deficit or the size of Estonia's GDP, but rather whether he will secure for Reform another elections victory. Achieving this without a new credible enemy image will be more than a serious challenge.

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