Norstat poll puts support for Parempoolsed over election threshold

Support for parliamentary parties did not change significantly over the past week, but support for the non-parliamentary party Parempoolsed grew enough to surpass the election threshold of 5 percent for the first time, according to the results of a survey published on Wednesday by the Institute for Societal Studies and the polling firm Norstat Eesti.
According to the latest results, Isamaa is supported by 27.4 percent, the Reform Party by 18.9 percent, and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) by 15.2 percent of eligible voters.
Following the top three are the Social Democratic Party (SDE) with 14.3 percent, the Center Party with 11.4 percent, and both Eesti 200 and Parempoolsed, each supported by 5.2 percent of eligible voters. Support for Parempoolsed increased by 1.3 percentage points over the week, surpassing the election threshold for the first time.
The survey results also indicate that EKRE's five-week decline has stopped.
A total of 38.4 percent of respondents support coalition parties, while 54 percent support opposition parties.
The latest consolidated results reflect the survey period from May 13 to June 10, with a total of 4,003 eligible Estonian citizens surveyed.
The NGO Institute for Societal Studies also highlights the results of the last week's survey, with a sample of 1,000 respondents, as these differ significantly from the results of the last four weeks with a sample of 4,003 respondents.
Based on the results of the past week, Isamaa is supported by 29.6 percent, the Reform Party by 17.8 percent, and EKRE by 16.3 percent. Following the top three are the SDE with 14.1 percent, the Center Party with 10 percent, Parempoolsed with 6.9 percent, and Eesti 200 with 2.9 percent.
In presenting the results, the NGO Institute for Societal Studies and pollster Norstat Eesti AS focused on the consolidated results of the last four weeks, which means that the sample consists of at least 4,000 people, excluding voters without a party preference when calculating relative party support. The maximum margin of error depends on the size of the largest group proportion. In this survey, the largest group was Isamaa supporters, with a margin of error of +/-1.67 percent. For other parties, the margin of error is smaller, such as +/-0.83 percent for Eesti 200. This method of calculating party support percentages smooths out fluctuations in individual surveys caused by both a larger statistical error and short-term events.
Norstat conducted the surveys during the periods May 13-20, May 20-27, May 27-June 1, and June 3-10, with a total of 4,003 respondents aged 18 and older. To ensure a representative sample, the surveys were conducted using a combined method of telephone and online surveys, with the majority of responses collected via telephone. The sample data was weighted to reflect the proportional distribution of eligible voters according to key sociodemographic characteristics to ensure the representativeness of the results.
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Editor: Mait Ots, Marcus Turovski