Expert: Greatest threat not from Russia but Western domestic politics
The biggest security threat Estonia faces in the coming years is not Russia, with its hands tied militarily in Ukraine, but the domestic politics of Western powers, said security expert Rainer Saks.
"The number one threat has to do with political developments in Europe and America, not the possibility of a Russian attack," Saks said on ERR's "Otse uudistemajast" webcast Wednesday.
He explained that even though there is no way to be completely sure, intelligence reports suggest Russia has sent so many troops to Ukraine that it is not able to open up new fronts elsewhere.
"What we can see, and this is confirmed by recent reports by the Finnish and Norwegian intelligence services, is that Russia does not have the capacity to expand its military ventures either in the west, south or east. Most troops it had in the west of the country have been moved to fight in Ukraine where they are very seriously tied down and cannot simply be pulled out. That is why we cannot see Russia preparing for an offensive in the west on any levels. But considerable hybrid and information operations pressure remains," Saks suggested.
The possibility for new military conflicts is greatest in states neighboring Ukraine. "The worst-case scenario today is chance escalation around Poland and Romania should Russia's offensive operations aimed against Ukraine get out of hand," the expert noted.
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Editor: Mait Ots, Marcus Turovski
