The split between those with a positive view of the new prime minister, his government, and the actions of both, and those who see it in a negative light, is split almost down the middle, while over a quarter of respondents were undecided at this early stage.

The survey, conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of think tank the Institute of Social Studies  (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut) and on the same day Michal received the mandate from the Riigikogu to form the next government, posed the question: "Who would you prefer to see as prime minister?"

Respondents were given a choice of the leaders of all six parties represented at the Riigikogu.

The results gave 23 percent to Reinsalu, compared with 20 percent for Michal.

These two were followed by Mihhail Kõlvart (Center) at 13 percent, Martin Helme (EKRE) at 10 percent, Lauri Läänemets (SDE, 4 percent), and Margus Tsahkna (Eesti 200, 2 percent).

Norstat also questioned respondents about their expectations for the new prime minister.

"What are your expectations for how Kristen Michal will perform as prime minister?" was the question here.

A total of 38 percent of respondents said they believed Michal would perform "very poorly" or "somewhat poorly," compared with 35 percent who thought he would do "quite well" or "very well," along with 27 percent undecided.

Additionally, respondents were asked about their preferred government coalition.

The most popular choice, favored by 14 percent of respondents, was a rainbow coalitoin consiseing of Eesti 200, the Social Democrats (SDE), the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), Isamaa and Center – in other words, all the parties bar Reform.

The next most-picked choice, at 12 percent, did feature the Reform Party, but with Isamaa alongside SDE rather than Eesti 200. This alignment was last in office July 2022 to April 2023.

Other coalition options were significantly less favored, and just 7 percent picked the current Reform-Eesti 200-SDE lineup.

Commenting on these results, Martin Mölder, Associate Professor at the University of Tartu's Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies, said that the government led by Kristen Michal needs to prove itself positively first before it can see any noticeable rise in support for either prime minister or coalition.

Mölder said: "The legacy left by the previous government, both in terms of reputation and in the state of governance, represents a heavy burden."

"Approval ratings for the prime minister and the government have generally been very low over the past year, and voters' party preferences currently differ significantly from the distribution of power at the Riigikogu," he went on.

The results should also be taken in the context of the traditional Estonian ootame-vaatame (wait and see) approach, meaning voters may become more committed one way or another in the future.

"Rapid shifts in voter attitudes are unlikely, and public support will only follow after concrete political actions which are approved of or accepted by the electorate," Mölder said.

Michal's coalition was sworn in on Tuesday.

The Norstat survey was conducted online the day before that, and quizzed 1,000 Estonian citizens aged 18 and older.

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