Jaak Valge and Silver Kuusik: Of mobilization-age Ukrainian men in Estonia
If Estonia grants temporary and international protection to Ukrainian men who meet the conditions for conscription even though they should be in Ukraine, it will undermine the morale of Ukrainian fighters, write Jaak Valge and Silver Kuusik.
Although comparable data is not available, it can be assumed that, relative to its population and wealth, Estonia has helped Ukraine more than any other country in the world through financial aid, weapons and the reception of refugees. Aid to Ukraine is indeed very necessary, as Ukraine is defending itself against Russia, which has four times the human resources.
The shortage of fighters is Ukraine's biggest problem. Russian propaganda channels are gleefully spreading video recordings of military-aged men being apprehended on the streets of Ukrainian cities.
Since the beginning of Russia's aggression, men aged 18-60 have only been allowed to leave Ukraine in exceptional cases. The conditions for leaving Ukraine have been gradually tightened. In the fall of 2022, students studying at foreign universities were prohibited from leaving.
During his visit to Estonia earlier this year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy answered a journalist's question about whether Estonia should extradite men of conscription age back to Ukraine. Zelenskyy stated that these men should indeed be in Ukraine and helping their country, and this does not only concern fighting on the front lines. "One soldier is supported by six to eight taxpayers. If someone works and pays taxes, they also contribute and help their country. If someone is of conscription age, not on the front line, not paying taxes in their country and has left the country in violation of the law, then this raises questions," Zelenskyy said.
On April 17, 2024, Zelenskyy signed a legal act amending Ukrainian laws on military service, mobilization and military registration. The provision for demobilizing soldiers after 36 months of service was removed from the law and control over evaders was increased. The president also confirmed that anyone of conscription age who acted outside the mobilization law had already violated the law.
Crossing the border illegally to avoid mobilization in Ukraine can be punished with a prison sentence of two to five years. The Ukrainian Border Guard checks whether those crossing the border have documents exempting them from military service.
Accurate data on the number of people who have left Ukraine for various countries is difficult to obtain, as people move between countries, and some of those registered as refugees may be commuting back and forth or may have actually returned to their homeland. However, according to Eurostat, Estonia, along with Latvia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, is among the leading countries in Europe and the world in terms of the proportion of its population that has received temporary protection.
As of the end of May, there were 34,000 Ukrainian refugees under temporary protection in Estonia, 45,000 in Latvia, 121,000 in Slovakia and 356,000 in the Czech Republic. However, according to the Ministry of the Interior's border guard and migration policy department, by the end of June, there were also 6,793 Ukrainian men of conscription age among those in Estonia.
We have previously asked whether it might be more effective to support these refugees in Ukraine rather than helping them in Estonia, thereby avoiding the demographic catastrophe that will inevitably hit Ukraine if most refugees do not return. Anyone who has been to Ukraine can confirm that there are few signs of war in the western regions. And wouldn't it be more effective to educate Ukrainian children in Estonia based on the Ukrainian curriculum, perhaps online if necessary, rather than teaching them in Estonian, a language they do not understand?
The main concern is the concentration of Ukrainian men of conscription age in Estonia. In addition to temporary protection, which is an exceptional procedure aimed at providing immediate and temporary protection to foreigners who cannot return to their country of origin in the case of mass immigration, Estonia also offers international protection. In the latter case, a person's background is examined more thoroughly, and protection is granted for a longer period.
As Interior Minister Lauri Läänemets (SDE) stated during a parliamentary inquiry on April 1 of this year, "Obtaining international protection is a longer and more complex process, during which it must be acknowledged that the applicants cannot return to their homeland due to the war."
Some media outlets have published stories claiming that Estonia is harassing Ukrainian men of military age by asking for their military ID. However, the extension of a residence permit is not decided based on this. It is also incorrect to claim that other countries besides Estonia do not check documents exempting individuals from military service. Latvia and Lithuania have been doing this since at least 2022 when granting temporary and international protection.
While the number of refugees under temporary protection has gradually decreased, as some have obtained residence permits on other grounds or have left Estonia, the number of individuals receiving international protection has sharply increased, particularly among Ukrainian men of conscription age. At the end of 2022, according to the Ministry of the Interior, international protection in Estonia had been granted to 2,044 Ukrainian refugees, including 1,163 men of conscription age. By the beginning of this year, these numbers had risen to 5,591 and 3,864, respectively, and by the end of June, to 5,995 and 4,169.
It is unclear what is happening. Why do Ukrainian men of conscription age require the longest-term protection in Estonia? From whom? Why are their numbers and proportions continuously growing? How did they come to Estonia? Why are they unable to return to their homeland, as Läänemets claims? Would they not be welcomed with open arms in their homeland if they wished to fight or otherwise help their war-torn country, even if they had previously violated orders?
It is true that not all men are front-line fighters. And certainly, some of the men who have received international and temporary protection in Estonia have been exempted from military service. But as Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated, Ukraine still needs them.
In any case, we must understand that if Estonia grants temporary and international protection to Ukrainian conscripts who should be in Ukraine, it undermines the morale of Ukrainian fighters.
Do we really want to help Ukraine? If so, why are we doing one thing with one hand and something different with the other?
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Editor: Marcus Turovski