Reserve general: We prevent war spreading to Estonia by helping Ukraine

Defense spending – no matter how high – will not guarantee that Estonia can prevent a war on its territory, said reserve Maj. Gen. Meelis Kiili, a Riigikogu National Defense Committee member. Instead, he stressed the importance of helping Ukraine.
Kiili, Reform Party MP, said in 2021, when defense spending was 2.6 percent of GDP, it was argued that this would be enough to protect the whole region.
"Then came €4 billion, then came €1.6 billion, now €800 million. Neither €1.6 billion nor even €4 billion give us any guarantees. Of course, it improves our situation if we have an independent defense capability at a level where we can respond immediately to an adversary, but we still have to understand that we are part of a larger system. We have to start thinking big," he told Tuesday's "Terevisioon."
Kiili stressed that Estonia is NATO, and in the event of an attack, NATO will defend itself.
He also highlighted the alliance's Article 3, which means each member state must have its own defense capability: "But it has to be done together with other allies according to processes and plans."
"We have no reason to panic at all," Kiili said. He added that NATO is preparing capability packages, which defense ministers should approve in a year.
"Over the year, we need to find out exactly what our needs are," he said, adding that we still know about the need for ammunition by learning from other conflicts.
"Today, we have the experience of the Israeli-Hamas war, the Armenian-Azerbaijani war, of course, the war in Ukraine. But that does not mean that we cut out a piece of the Ukrainian front, put it here and say this is the war we are going to have. Every war has its own character," Kiili told the show.
The reservist said national defense is significantly broader than the armed forces, and the state's task is to ensure that other vital services do not collapse by prioritizing a single area. In this case, by acquiring ammunition.
"We do not just need to talk about ammunition, we also need to talk about being able to prevent, to lead, to be part of a bigger system and that we are actually keeping Estonian society and economy afloat. It is very complex. Talking only about ammunition does not give the full picture," he stressed.
"We prevent the war from coming to our territory by very actively helping Ukraine by tying Russia's capabilities there," the MP said. He added that he thinks Russia's economic power and resources are being overstated in Estonia.
Kiili believes Ukraine has adopted a corrosive, or disruptive, strategy towards Russia, and Estonia's task is to help Ukraine win.
Former head of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Martin Herem said earlier this year that Estonia needs to purchase a minimum of €1.6 billion worth of ammunition to have credible deterrence. This will allow the EDF to strike Russian territory, if necessary.
Due to slow supply chains from western weapons producers, this needs to be procured as soon as possible as it will not reach Estonia for at least two-three years, Herem said.
He also said Estonia is relying too much on NATO and the USA.
But Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur (Reform) said the government cannot allocate so much money for ammunition. Approximately €800 million is the most that can be expected.
EDF chief Andrus Merilo said last week, if the €1.6 billion cannot be found, the EDF could not prevent war on Estonian soil.
Earlier this summer, the Ministry of Defence's top official Kusti Salm resigned citing government inaction as the reason.
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Editor: Mirjam Mäekivi, Helen Wright
Source: "Terevisioon", interview by Katrin Viirpalu