There seems to be some confusion in the government – Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said she expects an official proposal for solving the matter of the missing €1.6 billion for munitions. She said that members of the government are reading about it from the paper, and that [Ministry of Defense Permanent Secretary] Kusti Salm and Gen. Herem have made no such proposal. How far along are things?

I have presented, in the form of military advice from the EDF commander, the proposal to procure more munitions twice to the Riigikogu National Defense Committee, to members of the Reform Party's group in the Riigikogu, to members of the Foreign Affairs Committee and the National Defense Committee in the presence of the minister of defense, as well as to the finance minister, once more with the defense minister present. I was also invited to speak by Social Democratic Party MPs and the minister of the interior. I have given everyone on that list an overview of the situation.

I really don't know what else to do. I suppose I should draw up an official document for the prime minister or government. But I have been under the impression that this will be done by the ministry [of defense].

Perhaps I have given rise to this confusion by failing to understand procedure. But members of the government, including the defense minister have certainly been aware.

Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur (Reform) is the one who should have raised the issue during a cabinet meeting. It is clear that such things are not discussed openly. If memory serves, you started talking about the need back in November. That it's a critical exigency for which a concrete plan exists in terms of how to spend the resources, and that it's not simply asking for more money. It's June now, and members of the government are shrugging their shoulders, saying they've been made no official proposal to even discuss anything.

It may be true, since I really have not sent in an official proposal on paper. But I have been showing it to members of the government since May, which is when we had and could produce exact and full calculations.

I may have gone against procedure and misunderstood certain processes. But I cannot say that they've been unaware of figures – exact figures and how we came up with them.

I haven't shown them to the prime minister. She is correct in that.

From the sidelines it seems the defense minister has left an important piece of work undone.

I cannot say.

Have you understood why Ministry of Defense Permanent Secretary Kusti Salm decided to resign? We're talking about those very €1.6 billion. A government ministry's top official has decided to resign because he's been ignored by politicians. It seems there is reluctance to understand.

He has elaborated on those reasons himself, whereas this matter is not the only one. He has mentioned other differences of opinion. So you can go and read it there.

Have you presented your [munitions procurement] plan to the board of the Reform Party?

I have not, even though we planned to. But it seems to me that they're a little busy right now. They have other matters to attend to.

Did they refuse?

We have no agreement and I've simply proposed a meeting, but I know they don't have the time.

Will your calculations be made public in full or will it remain a classified affair?

It is not classified as a state secret. The way it has been drawn up allows us to show these calculations to defense contractors, for example. Whether fledgling manufacturers in Estonia or foreign producers so they could see our needs and potential.

So there is a document? You just need to click "send" and it will land in the inboxes of every minister if necessary?

Exactly.

But the defense minister has not sent it?

If you put it like that, I probably haven't sent it to him either in direct terms. But he has access to it through our information systems, and once more – I have presented the facts. Perhaps it is a legal problem of something not having been officially filed, which is something I have experience with from the past.

Herem also appeared on ETV's "Esimene stuudio" evening show Thursday to talk about Estonia's national defense needs.

Is it a privilege of the outgoing commander to say all the things you were reluctant to say before?

It is not. It is our threat assessment, fear that's making me say these things. I am not convinced today that the threat we're talking about will never materialize. I'm afraid it may materialize unless we take certain steps. That is why I'm pointing these things out. Unfortunately, many already see talking about the Russia threat as mandatory rhetoric and something that will never happen, which is why important decisions can go unmade or analysis and deliberation take too long.

How urgent is the need for these €1.6 billion and what is the market situation? How quickly could we procure these things?

The market situation is less than rosy. Many of the things we'd like to have would arrive in 2027 or later. I'm not sure we have the time. But if our country and a few others would decide that we need these things urgently, I believe manufacturing would pick up speed. Perhaps an alternative domestic industry would also take off.

Do we need these things today, right now?

We need the decision today. The money would be spent once we take delivery of something.

Kusti Salm told Kärt Anvelt in an interview that he thought long and hard about whether to leave quietly, say that he's tired and wants to spend time with the family or on hobbies, or whether he should voice his reason for quitting. I wonder who might have been his example?

I also said I was tired. I can tell you that Kusti Salm got tired of the constant struggle. It was basically the same for me. Once things stop moving... It's like you're the coach of a team that could become world champions, there's talent and power, but things have just stopped developing. And sometimes you feel it's only because you're the coach. That is when, despite your position and a decent salary, it may be time to offer the post to another coach. If you are interested in how the team does that is.

In other words, you got tired of asking for money time and again only for it to never come?

Not everything is about money. There are many things we can do by simply taking a different approach or moving existing sums around in the state budget or those of the EDF and Ministry of Defense. But, yes, I believe that there are too many of those who believe the threat will not materialize, which is why things are moving so slowly.

How long do we have to fix matters?

Who can say for as long as Russia remains tied down in Ukraine to the extent it is right now. But we don't know when it'll end. I believe that if Russia pulls just half of its forces out of Ukraine and takes up a purely defensive position relying on its firepower, they could maintain the front line as it is now. And even just that, as forces they could use just a few months later, would pull away over 200,000 troops, thousands of units of machinery, two million shells and 10,000 Shahed drones. Half of what Russia has or can manufacture in a year.

For it to happen, there would have to be instability in the world. So we need to look to Taiwan, Israel and the Balkans. Should things get out of hand there, with Russia no longer occupied with Ukraine, that is when we'll need to take a look in the mirror and ask whether we have done enough to prevent developments. Whether we've taken the necessary steps. If we take those steps, the threat will remain theoretical, lingering on the horizon somewhere. If we fail to take these steps, I believe we're inviting it to come visit us.

What are the drone warfare developments we're working on? Can we defend ourselves against drones and missiles?

We should be able to. What we've learned from Ukraine, perhaps more in air surveillance and air defense fire control, is for the defenders to have early warning. We've learned that reinforcing our key sites pays off, which work still needs to be done. Eesti Energia, waterworks, heating etc. I believe we can do it, while it needs to be taken seriously and followed up with investments.

The Financial Times recently wrote that NATO only has 5 percent of the air defense capacity that would be needed on the eastern flank. How seriously should we take such articles?

It was likely said by someone who believes developments need to pick up speed. But I believe they do not really grasp what they're talking about. It may be 5 percent as concerns Patriots or medium-range air defense and long-range air defense. What we need to do today is also look at [how to counter] Shahed drones and cruise missiles, which is included in our munitions requirements calculations.

The second interesting debate today revolves around French President Emmanuel Macron's promise to send military instructors to Ukraine. From a military point of view, is there any difference between helping the Ukrainians around Lviv or 500 kilometers away in Poland?

We also trained the Malians in one area and then sent them to fight in another, 1,000 kilometers away, and they were wiped out. It is very sensible to teach certain things where they live. The Ukrainians could take short courses by temporarily leaving the front. So it would definitely help them. In terms of security, whether we could train a battalion, 500 or more people at once, it makes for a different matter. I believe that would require very strong air defenses, also against ballistic missiles. But it would be sensible militarily and benefit us too on a smaller scale because the things we'd learn would be very different from when trainees are sent to the U.K.

Your time in office is almost at an end. Aren't you sad to leave behind so many good colleagues?

I'm not sad, but perhaps I'm not sad yet. These past five and a half years as EDF commander are but a part of it. I have been in uniform for 32 years, next to people I met in military school back in 1992, including Gen. Andrus Merilo (next EDF commander – ed.) whom I met in Kuperjanov [Battalion] in 1993. So it's a longer period of time. But I have already made pledges in the capacity of a reserve officer, so I will likely meet those people again, perhaps even in uniform.

What will be the new EDF commander's biggest challenges?

Shaping the threat perception. And also fighting yourself over it. I know that Merilo sees the threat pretty much as I do. How to work with people who do not take the same look. That's when you start to egg and hurry them along, motivate and teach them. It takes a lot of energy. I believe that's the greatest challenge, both in Estonia and among our allies.

What will young pensioner Herem be doing with his time?

I have already promised Gen. Merilo that I will represent Estonia in the National Reserve Forces Committee (NRFC). I will head to the U.K. where I'll spend four days in uniform on the first day of my retirement on July 1.

So no retirement?

There will be time for retirement, while I will stay associated with the reserve force and the reserve officers body. I will also be pursuing my hobbies, one of which is the Defense League. I plan to be a grandfather, and I plan to be a better grandfather than I was a father. And I'll also look at which areas of business call to me. I'm quite sure there's something out there for me. While I have no contract at this time, there are prospects.

What about politics?

Politics is not for me. I cannot operate the way these people do. It's a skill or a special kind of patience which I simply don't have.

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