In the event of war, €4.2 billion would be needed to counter Russia's initial attack, according to advice from the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) commander and calculations by leading defense officials. This would require over 800 ATACMS long-range missiles, an exceptionally large quantity even by global standards.

"I probably wouldn't be mistaken in saying that 800 missiles would make Estonia the second-largest holder of these missiles. The United States certainly has more, but I doubt anyone else has as many," said Magnus-Valdemar Saar, director general of the Estonian Center for Defense Investments (RKIK).

According to publicly available data, the U.S. has approximately 4,000 such missiles in its stockpiles, Saar explained. American defense contractor Lockheed Martin produces about 500 of these missiles annually.

"We know that the United States is currently finalizing a new ATACMS contract, so it's not possible to specify an exact delivery time. However, there is a general understanding of how many are produced and when they might be delivered. We are talking about delivery times possibly in 2028-2029, or even later, for the full quantity of 800."

The total cost of 800 missiles would be over €2 billion, accounting for more than half of the still-needed €3.2 billion. Currently, EDF head Gen. Martin Herem and Ministry of Defense Permanent Secretary Kusti Salm have discussed a critical need for half that amount, €1.6 billion. It is unclear if this means purchasing half as many ATACMS missiles. The public document currently under discussion, which outlines the missile needs, is based on calculations from public sources. The exact procurement plan would likely be more detailed and slightly different.

"The long-range effect planned to be achieved with ATACMS, which has a range of up to 300 kilometers, can also be achieved with other systems. Naturally, if we are tasked with acquiring such a quantity of long-range systems, we will also discuss alternatives with the EDF. In terms of which alternative missiles or other means could achieve the same effect," noted Saar.

It should also be considered that Estonia has acquired six HIMARS rocket launchers capable of firing these missiles. After each ATACMS missile launch, a new missile cassette, the size of a small car, must be loaded. To fire 800 missiles, each launcher crew would need to reload more than a hundred times, avoiding enemy observation and counterfire. If the enemy manages to destroy a HIMARS or one malfunctions, one-sixth of this capability would be lost.

"If we talk about 800 ATACMS, would additional HIMARS platforms be needed as well? This is a separate analysis question that will need to be addressed at some point. But I think the main thing is the effect we want to achieve at that specific distance and the approximate number of targets," Saar said.

As an alternative, one could consider missile launchers or more powerful drones and loitering munitions produced in Israel or South Korea. However, this raises the issue that the more diverse the systems the EDF have, the harder it is to train soldiers and maintain all the different equipment. If politicians allocate funds for long-range munitions for the EDF, a detailed analysis would be necessary to determine if something could be acquired faster or more cheaply.

"There are probably no simple solutions where we can just buy something else cheaper and easily meet the capabilities," Saar emphasized.

In addition to the need for long-range missiles, the defense chief's advice on ammunition procurement also highlights the need for various other purchases.

"The hardest part is the lead times for technically complex systems, which are usually some sort of advanced missile systems. Whether these are air defense missiles, long-range precision strike missile systems or anti-tank systems."

For example, the Americans are developing a new missile system, the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), to replace ATACMS. The new missiles should be smaller, with one HIMARS launcher able to carry two. They can fly farther and are expected to be newer and better in all other aspects. However, developing new missiles means the United States must decide whether to increase production of older systems or focus on the new ones. Generally, the more complex the weapon system, the harder it is to quickly ramp up production.

"The number of components used is very broad. Assembling them is technologically challenging. The main bottleneck in increasing production capacity is essentially the top experts who can assemble them. It's not possible to simply add another production line, buy a few CNC machines or robots and then suddenly increase capacity. Increasing production volume in these areas often goes hand-in-hand with developing a system that is technologically easier to produce," Saar explained.

For any new major Estonian procurement, alternatives must be considered, added the RKIK director. It is somewhat easier with other types of ammunition.

"Even with the much-discussed artillery ammunition, it is likely possible to order quite large quantities within 24 months."

The limiting factor for artillery ammunition is the lack of explosives, but even more so the charges needed to fire the shells from the cannon.

"The EDF uses a bimodular charge system, and the availability of modular charges worldwide is very limited. However, our southern neighbor [Latvia] has made investments and is already working to develop the capability to produce bimodular charges in collaboration with partners. Once this capability is established, there is a good chance we will also be one of the clients."

Despite limited production capacities and the need to consider alternatives for some weapon systems, it would be possible for Estonia to purchase the quantity of ammunition recommended by the EDF head within a few years, Saar confirmed.

"If the financial resources are allocated and the package is precisely planned as a procurement task for us [RKIK], delivery times will emerge, which will also be contractually binding on the supplier. Where delivery times extend far over the horizon, alternatives must be considered. The ATACMS example is likely one, but there are probably other cases where an alternative weapon system or different ammunition may need to be acquired to achieve the same effect. All these alternative considerations must be thoroughly examined. Overall, I think that if the EDF provides such a package for RKIK to implement and achieve the effects, depending somewhat on how time-critical we consider it, delivering the entire package with all the effects by 2027 or 2028 is realistic."

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