Coalition still not fully on board with borrowing money to buy ammunition

Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur's (Reform) plan for Estonia to borrow money over three years to buy ammunition has not received immediate support from coalition representatives. Minister of the Interior Lauri Läänemets (SDE) admitted that more concrete discussions about covering this €1.6 billion alongside other budget costs are currently waiting on Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Reform) and her possible departure for Europe.
Pevkur believes that the €1.6 billion needed to buy the ammunition could be covered by a three-part loan – borrowing €500 million a year for three consecutive years would add up to the needed amount. This loan would be repaid from the money collected from tax hikes, such as a 2 percent increase in income tax.
MP Aivar Sõerd, a member of the Finance Committee of the Riigikogu and fellow member of Reform, considers this a simplistic approach.
He says it must be kept in mind that the state budget is short by much more than €1.6 billion. Next year's budget deficit will be around 5 percent, and the loan would then be on top of that.
"Personally, I support radical budget cuts," Sõerd said. "That means very unpopular decisions."
Of tax changes, the MP highlighted freezing or even cutting the basic exemption, or rate of tax-exempt income. Next year, the monthly basic exemption will reach €700; he believes it should remain at €654, which he says would provide significant savings.
"The tax hump can be limited in such a way too that there's no need to increase the basic exemption rate," Sõerd explained. "There's no need to raise it to €700; it can be left at the same level as it is now."
He does not, however, support hiking the income tax.
"Of course I don't support it," the Reform MP said. "Political will is one thing, but objective reality is another. Starting next year, we'll have an income tax rate of 22 percent. If I'm not mistaken, that's higher than in Finland or Sweden already. We're competing in this region for businesses, for investments, for labor.
Läänemets, also chair of the SDE, said that on top of the €1.6 billion, the deficit resulting from the fall in GDP hasn't been negotiated yet either.
In principle, the Social Democrats support repaying the potential loan by, for example, raising the income tax by a couple of percentage points. The scheme floated by Pevkur, however, wouldn't be so easily implemented.
"Ultimately it's within the context of the total state budget deficit; it's not possible for us to start deciding only defense spending right now," he acknowledged. "Let's say we make a decision about the €1.6 billion and we say, for example, that an income tax hike of a couple of percent is off. Then in three months we discover that there's actually a few more percent in tax changes to make."
According to the interior minister, however, right now, these decisions are waiting on Kaja Kallas and the Reform Party.
Should Kallas end up heading to Europe for another post, that will mean forming a new government, and then Reform has to decide who will become Estonia's next prime minister and what the new coalition will look like.
"Without these changes made, it's unlikely these financial decisions can be made," Läänemets said.
Minister of Foreign Affairs and Eesti 200 chair Margus Tsahkna, meanwhile, is sticking to what he has previously said – that the solution lies in issuing bonds.
"What's good about bonds is that foreign funds and the Estonian people themselves are interested in them," Tsahkna highlighted. "This can also be stretched out as a state budget burden over an extended period."
He believes there may be no need to raise the income tax.
The Eesti 200 chief likewise noted that as of the end of April, budget rules apply in the EU as well.
"New defense spending done in terms of investments, that no longer has to be included when calculating the budgetary balance," he noted. "Which gives us the opportunity in terms of the state budget to issue these defense bonds and actually invest in advance according to the direction of the commander of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF)."
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Editor: Aleksander Krjukov, Aili Vahtla