Provided the Social Democrats, who belong to the ruling coalition in Estonia, will not change their mind soon, several Estonian cities stand to get local councils elected largely by citizens of the aggressor state Russia. Even though it is not something most people and politicians in Estonia want.

It's not hard to understand why. Why should voting be open to people who have preferred the citizenship of a country that is waging a ruthless war of conquest in Ukraine?

In addition to the moral aspect, the chance of more than 70,000 Russian citizens to decide who will rule Estonian local governments entails domestic politics risks. Especially in Ida-Viru County cities where the relative importance of Russian citizen voters is considerable. But Russian votes also have a considerable effect on the election result in Tallinn.

One of the arguments of leading Social Democratic Party (SDE) politicians for retaining the voting rights of Russian citizens has been that many Estonian citizens also voted for Aivo Peterson, now charged with treason and having ties to the Kremlin, at Riigikogu and European Parliament elections, which are not open to Russian citizens. Claims have also been made that the votes of Russian citizens would not majorly affect election results.

What the Social Democrats fail to consider is the huge difference in the size of electoral districts. For example, while Peterson got 11,503 votes at European elections, they were from all over Estonia and not nearly enough for Peterson to be elected. At Riigikogu elections, the county was the electoral district, and Peterson and Mihhail Stalnuhhin – famous among other things for referring to the Estonian government as fascists – came very close to making the parliament.

In this light, Peterson, Stalnuhhin and likeminded individuals will find it relatively easy to make the local councils in Narva, Sillamäe, Kohtla-Järve, but also Jõhvi and Tallinn. Especially if we consider that stateless persons can also vote in local elections. Also retaining the voting rights of Russian citizens would curb the influence of pro-Estonian candidates in local councils.

Russia's war in Ukraine has polarized attitudes in Estonia. Elections are one way to demonstrate one's mentality without consequences, unlike wearing a ribbon of St. George, which now fetches a swift fine from the police. This was demonstrated at the previous two elections. We can expect more Russian citizens to also take part in the upcoming [2025] local elections.

As a result, there is a considerable chance that power will shift into the hands of groups seeking greater confrontation with the central government in several Ida-Viru cities. Even though there's enough of the latter as is. Let us recall the reluctance in Narva to renaming streets bearing the names of Soviet butchers, how teaching Estonian remained a seventh-rate priority in municipal schools for decades or the recent campaign against the management of the Narva Museum for daring to put on an exhibition covering the March deportations.

In a situation where local council candidates know that a considerable part of voters are citizens of a country headed by Vladimir Putin, there will be attempts to please them. Such a development would nullify a large part of the efforts made by the central government and many active people in Ida-Viru County to move the region closer to the rest of Estonia.

Minister of Regional Affairs Piret Hartman (SDE) recently told [local paper] Põhjarannik that citizenship is not the only indicator of mentality. While there are always exceptions, a quick look at the big picture, unfortunately, leaves little room for wishful thinking.

The recent integration monitoring shows that most Russian citizens living in Estonia are only superficially integrated. And the fact they've been able to elect local government councils for the past 30 years has not helped in any way. Based on the same study, half of Russian citizens living in Estonia aren't even interested in obtaining Estonian citizenship.

Why, then, should they be able to elect local authorities, unlike in many other European Union states? It is not a human right, and a decision to revoke their local elections voting rights cannot be seen as punishment. Participating in local elections is a privilege offered by Estonia. But no "sale" should last for decades.

Those who have deemed it important to tie themselves to Estonian society have learned the language, know and respect Estonian culture. The door to obtaining Estonian citizenship on the same conditions will remain open even after the right to vote disappears.

Arguing that voting rights cannot be revoked for people who pay taxes is equally hollow. Russian citizens permanently living in Estonia will retain every public service their tax money helps fund.

The government is currently mulling whether to appoint another special representative to Ida-Viru County after Jaanus Purga's retirement. Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform) opined that because Just Transition Funds have largely been distributed, it makes little sense to hire security to guard a depleted resource.

However, the government might find itself having to organize a much more extensive rescue operation in Ida-Viru County a year from now at the latest, when local election results are in. The Social Democrats have the power to reduce said likelihood by leaps and bounds, but they're still showing reluctance.

If they care about nothing else, it would pay to consider that sticking to their guns might end up costing Estonian votes, while not bringing in too many Russian ones in their stead. Reform Party and Eesti 200 politicians would do well to try and help remove their coalition partner's blinkers in this matter.

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