While the outcome of today's presidential election in the United States is now too close to call, the economy is likely to play a vital role as an issue which voters have always been unforgiving on, consultant Andreas Kaju said.

Things may even come down to which party can mobilize its voters more effectively, the extent to which candidates are separated on gender lines, and the extent to which issues core to voters can outweigh other considerations.

The current U.S. presidential campaign's main issues have included the economy, healthcare, crime, immigration, gun policy, and abortion rights, with the economy being among the most significance of these.

Speaking to "Välisilm," Kaju said the current economic situation in the U.S. is serving to work against the Democrats as the incumbent party.

He said: "The American voter has always been unforgiving on this."

"Generally in American it is very hard to reclaim the White House if voters feel that life before your term, in this case, Joe Biden's term, was better, safer, or more secure than it was at the end of it," Kaju continued.

"And to the Democrats' detriment, a large proportion of American voters currently feel they have less money in their pockets, thanks to inflation, so this certainly affects their chances this time out as well."

At the same time, Kaju said, the Republicans have been able to resonate with voters on economic issues.

There are several factors at play, he went on.

"One point is that the Republicans have traditionally been seen as more credible on economic policy and economic issues," he said.

"Voters tend to associate – be it rightly or wrongly – economic success, growth, and proposed economic policies, as well as the strong leadership required during crises, with the Republicans."

"Although we [in Estonia] might wish for the kind of 'crisis' that the U.S. economy is experiencing today, it remains nonetheless significant for voters there," Kaju went on.

"Another factor is Donald Trump's background in business, which reddoubles the above perception for voters, making the Republicans, and Trump, especially when compared with Kamala Harris, again appear more credible on economic issues," he added.

The Republican party has also again adopted immigration as one of its key campaigning issues, and for several reasons, Kaju went on.

"One reason is that immigration is a real issue for the U.S. agenda, affecting voters from both parties; with three million illegal immigrants annually compared with the 300,000 seen by the EU in 2023 – a massive difference, especially given the EU's population of 500 million," Kaju continued.

"Illegal border crossings, particularly in border states like Arizona, which is also one of the seven swing states, make the issue palpable for the people there. Right now, the majority of American voters say this situation is unacceptable, and needs to be resolved."

In Kaju's view, the immigration issue also works against the Democrats, though they and Kamala Harris have revised their stance on it.

"This situation is working against Kamala Harris because she has been vice president over the last four years, and one of the few tasks apparently assigned to her by the president was to address the border issue, but which she has clearly failed to resolve. On the other hand, this has also shifted her position and that of the Democratic Party significantly to the right on this issue, leading to a relatively conservative stance on border and immigration issues."

Last minute polls indicate that the race between Trump and Harris down to the wire. According to Kaju, everything hinges on which candidate has been better able to motivate their voters to mobilize and vote.

This tends to point more towards a Harris/Walz victory, he said.

"Enthusiasm polls indicate that Democrats should have about a 10-point advantage, meaning their voters feel greater enthusiasm over their candidate, especially once Kamala Harris had replaced Joe Biden. On the other hand, so many issues currently present headwinds for the Democrats, especially on the economy," Kaju said.

"Personally speaking, I think the main question will be the size of the so-called gender gap, referring to men primarily voting for Trump and women primarily voting for Harris – ie. which of these groups turns out in more force this time. Plus regarding the issue of abortion and reproductive rights, how many women will turn out solely on this issue and are willing to continue supporting Democrats, despite the economy and immigration topics. This is one of the core matters," he concluded.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!