Of Tallinn's 460,000 residents, fewer than one-tenth – or roughly 32,000 people – are Russian citizens. Around 2,000 Belarusian citizens also live in the city.

Politicians interviewed by ERR unanimously confirmed that their parties are not calculating how the removal of voting rights from Russian and Belarusian citizens might influence election outcomes. They emphasized that none of their parties would specifically benefit from such a measure.

Tanel Kiik, a board member of the Social Democratic Party, stressed that while his party is likely to support amending the constitution, they have no interest in altering election results.

"However, it does seem that some of the parties leading this initiative, particularly Isamaa, have shown a clear interest in this regard. It hasn't even been hidden that part of the aim here is to achieve a favorable election outcome," Kiik stated.

Riina Solman, head of Isamaa's Tallinn branch, said their party's desire to remove voting rights from Russian and Belarusian citizens is purely ideological and is not influenced by potential vote tallies.

At the same time, she acknowledged that depriving about a tenth of Tallinn residents of voting rights could lead to a fundamental political shift. "I also support the end of the Center Party's one-party rule in Tallinn," Solman said.

Survey expert: Russian citizens vote for the Center Party

Aivar Voog, head of research at pollster Kantar Emor, recalled that in the 2021 local elections, the Center Party received 45 percent of the votes from Tallinn residents. If just Estonian citizens had been allowed to vote back then, excluding also the 30,000 stateless persons holding so-called gray passports, the Center Party's support would have dropped to 39 percent. "Their lead over other parties would have been smaller," Voog noted.

Currently, political consensus surrounds a proposal that would allow non-citizens to retain voting rights, which would likely have a somewhat smaller impact on election results.

Voog also pointed out that voter turnout among Russian-speaking residents tends to be relatively low. In 2021, 42 percent of Russian citizens voted, compared to the overall voter turnout of 54.7 percent. This adds an element of unpredictability to the proposed changes. According to Voog, it's possible that the constitutional amendment could drive up turnout among stateless residents and Russian-speaking Estonian citizens.

"This could also mobilize them. If the Center Party expresses opposition, they could attract all those votes," Voog said.

Recently, the Center Party's support base has shifted more toward non-Estonian-speaking voters. In 2021, between 11 and 14 percent of ethnic Estonians supported the Center Party, while 50 to 60 percent of voters from other ethnic backgrounds did. This year, support from non-Estonian-speaking voters remains around 50 percent, but support from ethnic Estonians has dropped to between 4 and 6 percent.

On one hand, this shift means that the loss of votes from Russian citizens would impact the Center Party more than before. On the other, it signals that the party still has significant potential to mobilize Russian-speaking voters.

A third of Narva residents Russian citizens

The impact of excluding Russian citizens from voting would be much more pronounced in the city of Narva, where one in three of the city's 53,000 residents holds a Russian passport.

"In Narva, this would mean a significant loss for the Center Party, with more than half of their vote share potentially gone," Voog said. He noted that in the 2021 elections, only half of those who voted for the Center Party across all of Ida-Viru County were Estonian citizens.

While in Tallinn some politicians anticipate that the change could bolster the election results of so-called right-wing parties, the situation in Narva is considerably more complex. Voog highlighted that in the border city, new electoral alliances are typically formed before each local election, making their support base difficult to predict.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!