The Syrian government has lost control of Aleppo for the first time since the country's civil war began, the BBC reported, after a surprise offensive by opposition forces on Wednesday. It has been led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), as well as allied factions backed by Turkey.

Assad's grip on power in northern Syria is collapsing.

"Russia and Iran have been strongly backing Assad, maintaining his government and control over parts of the country," explained Merili Arjakas, a junior researcher at the International Center for Defense and Security.

"It depends on how effectively they can intervene in the conflict right now, as Russia has been preoccupied with military operations in Ukraine. Iran is involved because its proxies in the Middle East are fighting against Israel," she added.

In Syria, Russian ships are stationed at the port of Tartus, and a key airbase is located in Hmeimim. Maintaining influence in the Middle East is critical for Putin, and preserving combat capabilities in Syria is a separate challenge, said security expert Raivo Vare.

The war in Ukraine has forced Putin to withdraw some troops from Syria, and returning them would involve a lengthy detour, according to Vare.

"The logistics chain has been disrupted to some extent because supplies now have to bypass Europe. The Bosporus Strait is currently not a viable route," he said.

Russia's influence in Syria has weakened, and Syrian forces do not appear to be in control of the situation. Putin now faces unexpected additional burdens.

"He has to focus on defending his strongholds. He has neither the resources nor the interest for other matters. At the same time, he is tied to Syria — he cannot withdraw because it would mean a humiliating retreat from the Middle East, which is unacceptable to him. I think he is very worried right now," Vare stated.

Russia has consistently demonstrated its support for allies in the Middle East and Africa, said Arjakas.

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