The war between Israel and Hamas, as well as Hezbollah, and the aggressive advance by Syrian rebels toward the country's second-largest city, Aleppo, are interconnected, said Merili Arjakas, a researcher at the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), in an interview with "Välisilm."

"There is a clear connection here. One reason why the rebels have launched an offensive against Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad now is that Hezbollah, which supports the Assad regime, has been significantly weakened by its involvement in the conflict with Israel in Lebanon. As a result, they are unable to provide Assad with as much support in Syria. Additionally, Israel has carried out numerous strikes against Iranian and Hezbollah officers and military infrastructure in Syria, further weakening the Syrian government," Arjakas explained.

She added that this illustrates how events in the Middle East are interconnected. Arjakas noted that Hezbollah's earlier intervention on the side of the Syrian government during the Syrian civil war opened opportunities for Israeli intelligence to infiltrate Hezbollah's structures. This allowed Israel to gather actionable intelligence, which has been utilized in effective strikes against Hezbollah this fall.

At the same time, Israel's decision to expand its military activities against Hezbollah is tied to the conflict in Gaza, where Hezbollah has expressed support for Hamas, Arjakas added.

"All these wars are interconnected. It can be said that on October 7 last year, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar (who was killed by the Israeli military this fall) set off a domino effect, and we are now seeing how the pieces continue to fall, with each event influencing the next. This pattern is likely to continue," said Arjakas.

Bashar al-Assad may have overestimated his position

In Syria, anti-government rebels have taken control of the country's second-largest city, Aleppo. According to Arjakas, the rebels were able to advance so rapidly because Russia and Iran, which support the Syrian government, are preoccupied with other conflicts and could not provide the level of support Bashar al-Assad would have needed.

At the same time, Arjakas noted, it remains unclear how Assad failed to notice the rebels gathering their forces.

"After the attack, it became evident that they had been preparing for this offensive for months, enhancing their military efficiency and administrative structures," the fellow explained.

The researcher suggested that Assad may have overestimated the security of his position at the helm of Syria.

"In recent years, he has attempted to restore his standing among other Arab leaders as a more accepted figure. Last year, he succeeded in this effort when he was invited to an Arab League summit for the first time since his expulsion in 2011. It's possible he believed his position in the country was much stronger than it actually was."

Despite Assad's precarious situation, Arjakas does not foresee his position in Syria collapsing entirely.

"Over the weekend, there were numerous rumors about uprisings in Damascus or among army units loyal to Assad. So far, these rumors do not appear to be true, and there is no evidence of such unrest. However, the very existence of these rumors demonstrates just how fragile his situation is," Arjakas said.

One factor working in Assad's favor, Arjakas argued, is the shift in opposition dynamics. During the first active phase of the Syrian war, the opposition, despite being divided, united against Assad as a common enemy. Since their efforts to overthrow him failed, it is unlikely that removing Assad will be their primary goal this time.

"For example, Turkey – which has supported the rebels who launched the offensive in Syria – has already announced that it favors negotiations between Assad and the opposition to de-escalate the situation. Turkey sees an opportunity to secure a more advantageous strategic position for itself. For now, it appears that both within Syria and among external actors, there is an acceptance that Assad still has some future role in the country," Arjakas concluded.

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