Expert: Possible that bombing will resume in Gaza in 42 days

As Hamas and Israel initially only agreed to a ceasefire, it is possible that bombing in Gaza could resume with the same intensity in 42 days, said historian and journalist Andrei Hvostov.
Historian and journalist Andrei Hvostov noted on "Aktuaalne kaamera" news that the ceasefire agreement announced on Wednesday in the Middle East might not hold.
"First of all, we need to understand the terminology — this is a ceasefire set to last for 42 days. And once those 42 days are up, there's nothing to prevent the bombing and shooting from continuing with the same intensity. That possibility cannot be ruled out," he said.
Hvostov explained that the ceasefire could collapse after 42 days partly because Israeli society is divided over the war, with its more radical factions stating that negotiations with terrorists are impossible and that they must be destroyed.
Hvostov elaborated that under the terms of the ceasefire agreement currently known, both sides would release hostages and prisoners, though not all at once.
"Right now, Hamas is believed to be holding around 90 Israelis, with an estimated 60 still alive — that's the assessment. Israeli representatives also want the return of the bodies of the deceased. This will all happen in stages. In the first phase, three hostages will be handed over, in the second phase, four. It won't happen quickly or suddenly but rather gradually. Then, as Hamas releases hostages to Israel, Israel will in turn release from its prisons Palestinian individuals — whether you call them freedom fighters or terrorists depends on your perspective," he explained.
Hvostov added that if Israel were to recover 90 hostages from Hamas, Hamas would receive a significantly larger number of prisoners in return — potentially up to 1,300.
Hvostov believes that the main beneficiary of the ceasefire agreement is, as of now, incoming U.S. President Donald Trump.
"I would love to say that humanism and global peace have won, but unfortunately, I can't say that because this could all continue after 42 days," he said.
"But one clear winner is Donald Trump. He's already declaring this as one of his major achievements. And maybe he's not wrong, because while negotiations had been ongoing since last summer without success, now Israeli analysts say that the current ceasefire terms are exactly the same as those discussed six months ago. There hasn't been any progress — it was just delayed, but now the stalling has suddenly ended. There's a strong assumption that the Trump team made it clear to the Israeli government that the incoming U.S. president would highly value the establishment of this ceasefire," the historian said.
Hvostov added that the ceasefire in Gaza does not provide any insight into the potential for peace in the war in Ukraine. "The only thing that can be said is that in Trump's big shoes, there are different stones and the largest of these is China — his attention is focused on China. The next is the war in the Middle East and one small pebble is Ukraine. When the bloodshed began in Gaza, it diverted attention away from Ukraine. And if longer-term peace can be achieved in the Middle East, then perhaps global decision-makers will have more energy and time to devote to Ukraine," he concluded.
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Editor: Merili Nael, Marcus Turovski