Although Moscow has invested heavily in Bashar al-Assad and his regime, it appears they are now trying to save face amid a deteriorating situation. They likely want to signal to others in the region who might consider cooperating with Russia in the future that they won't be completely abandoned, even in difficult times, Member of the European Parliament Sven Mikser said Monday morning on "Terevisioon."

Mikser explained that the rebels who orchestrated the recent power shift in Syria are a coalition of very different groups, and Assad has not fully controlled his country throughout more than a decade of civil war.

"With the support of Iran and Russia, he managed to consolidate his regime's position around the capital and its surroundings. However, the fact that his main external backers are now preoccupied with other pressing issues likely created a window for this takeover. It was preceded by a period of planning and efforts to find common ground among the various rebel factions," Mikser noted.

He added that it currently appears the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which evolved from al-Qaeda's Syrian branch, has taken the reins. However, even HTS will likely need external support from other power centers to sustain their position.

"Although Turkey has previously supported a rival rebel group in northern Syria, Turkey could emerge as the biggest regional winner from this seismic shift, with broader implications for the Middle East," Mikser said.

According to Mikser, Israel is also working to consolidate its position and establish buffer zones, particularly in areas close to the Golan Heights.

"Israel has welcomed this shift and the end of Assad's regime. However, it should be noted that Assad's regime did not actively seek confrontation with Israel. Instead, it allowed Iran relatively free passage to Lebanon and supported Hezbollah. For Israel, the security issue with Assad was his facilitation of Iranian activity on Syrian soil. At the same time, Israel is unlikely to welcome the rise of a Sunni theocratic fundamentalist regime in Syria, as such a regime would be closely aligned with Hamas," Mikser explained.

He also recalled that during Assad's 50-year tyranny, his regime was a minority rule, as the Assads belong to the Alawite minority.

"There's always a sense of joy and liberation in such moments. But now the question is, who will stay in control, and what will the nature of this regime be? Currently, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of HTS, has sent messages indicating he intends to avoid reprisals against Alawites and other minorities. He has also expressed a willingness to engage with the outside world and protect the interests of countries with investments in Syria," Mikser said.

Mikser pointed out that history offers cautionary examples where seemingly democratic popular revolutions have led to the rise of highly extremist groups. Syria is home to factions that have evolved from both ISIS and al-Qaeda, many of which are listed as terrorist organizations in the Western world.

"A substantial bounty has been placed on al-Jolani's head, as he was previously regarded as a key al-Qaeda leader. It's true that he has undergone a significant transformation, even visually. He has gone from presenting himself as a fundamentalist religious leader to now portraying the image of a warlord. He is undoubtedly attempting to soften his image. Whether this reflects a genuine ideological moderation remains to be seen, assuming he can maintain his grip on power," Mikser said.

Regarding Assad's longtime ally Russia, Mikser highlighted that Russia has strategic interests in Syria, particularly its naval and air bases.

"Russia will not easily relinquish its interests in the Mediterranean. Moscow has stated that the new regime has assured the protection of its interests in Syria."

Whether this assurance will hold, however, remains uncertain, Mikser added. The new regime in Syria will need to quickly decide which external power center to align with, as it will require some form of external support.

"This is particularly significant because Russia and Iran view the new regime with considerable skepticism. Assuming the new government will be Sunni, we are unlikely to see a strategic alliance between Damascus and Tehran. What Turkey decides and how it views the influence of other regional actors over Damascus remains to be seen. I don't believe Turkey would welcome Russia's continued direct involvement in Damascus' power dynamics," Mikser concluded.

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