"I see developments in international politics and diplomacy that are promising for Ukraine. If we look at Donald Trump's actions and the fall of Assad's regime in Syria, these are encouraging signs," Raik told Sunday's "Ukraina stuudio."

"This also signals that Russia has weakened. Notably, Trump commented on Assad's fall in a way that emphasized Russia's weakness," she added.

At the same time, discussions about a possible ceasefire – but not a final peace agreement – between Ukraine and Russia are growing louder.

"It is clear that the incoming U.S. president Donald Trump is firmly focused on ending the war in Ukraine. For now, it seems Trump and his team have not fully decided what this means in practice. However, a positive signal is that Trump is actively communicating with Ukrainian leaders and Europeans," Raik said.

"The fact that Trump met with President Zelenskyy and President Macron in Paris [on Saturday] is the clearest sign that discussions are taking place and that Trump's team is listening to what Ukrainians and Europeans have to say about the next steps."

The deputy director emphasized that finding credible security guarantees for Ukraine is critical to ensuring a ceasefire holds.

Russia can only be stopped by force, she said, pointing out that previous so-called guarantees given to Ukraine lacked any real power and therefore held no true value.

"What is needed now is a model where Ukraine, with the support of its allies and partners, is militarily strong enough to prevent any new or future aggression by Russia," Raik said.

"Continued U.S. military support is still essential. While there have been indications that Trump might want to end it, there is no certainty about this. What is crucial now is what the Europeans do. Europe needs to significantly increase its contributions. This is also a way to maintain the U.S. presence, even if on a reduced scale compared to now. However, it is clear that Europe cannot fully replace the support the U.S. can provide to Ukraine," Raik commented.

"I believe Europeans understand very well that Trump is putting strong pressure on them. To maintain security in Europe and achieve a sustainable outcome that is acceptable for Ukraine, much more European support is needed," Raik said.

She noted positive developments in this area. "The UK and France have been discussing how to provide more support to Ukraine. Germany is currently in a politically complex situation, but there is hope that Germany's next government will take a stronger stance. And in our region, countries led by Poland are certainly ready to contribute as much as possible," she said.

Regarding possible security guarantee models, Raik said the best option for Ukraine would still be receiving an invitation to join NATO.

"We don't yet know Trump's stance on this. Trump has threatened to leave NATO altogether if Europeans don't contribute enough. But if we look at the different potential solutions rationally, the clearest and most effective long-term option is for Ukraine to gain the collective defense support of NATO. This would resemble the Cold War model of Germany, where Ukraine would join NATO but parts of its territory remain occupied by Russia, though this would not be legally recognized. There would still be an expectation that Ukraine will eventually regain control over these occupied territories," the expert explained.

"Another option would be the South Korea model, where Ukraine does not join NATO but receives strong security guarantees, including some form of Western military presence on Ukrainian territory," she added.

In any case, Raik said, the focus is on models that can halt military action. "If Russia receives a clear message that continuing the war will not allow it to achieve anything further because of the strong military force on Ukraine's side, then this could stop the fighting," Raik noted.

"Without this, I do not see Russia being interested in negotiations or agreeing to a ceasefire. Or, if there is not enough military strength, for Russia, the ceasefire will only be temporary, and it will eventually try again to bring all of Ukraine under its control," she added.

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