Relevant factors include fractured governance, foreign influences, and parallels to Libya and Iraq, Saks said, speaking to "Aktuaalne Kaamera's" Priit Kuusk.

A complex situation where perhaps the only certainty is that nothing is certain.

Syria lacks a central government, and its formation remains uncertain. A transitional government might arise through opposition agreements, yet ongoing civil war remains possible — anything is possible.

Past examples are not particularly encouraging. Take Iraq or Libya—when a dictator falls, the country often descends into complete chaos.

Yes, inevitably so. This is because, naturally, political processes in society have ended and have been suppressed. In a situation like that, to expect that a democratic consensus can now emerge is not justified.

What is the timeframe that would give us any sense of where this country is heading?

The first immediate test is whether the Turkish-backed groups will focus on forming a central government, or instead begin fighting the Kurdish units located in eastern Syria.

This is the first question: Will an agreement be reached, or not? If this is not achieved, then it will be very difficult to think that any central government can be formed at all.

Let us also talk about Russia, which is of interest to us—what has it lost, or is losing, now?

Russia has first and foremost lost its role in the Syrian process. It has partly evacuated its troops.

It is right now consolidating troops which had been spread across Syria into smaller units at the naval base in Tartous, in Latakia Province. Russia also controls the Hmeimim airbase. But we do not yet know what the fate of these bases will be.

Russia will certainly try to retain at least the naval base in Tartous.

However, we are seeing that, as a precautionary measure, some personnel and materiel have already been removed there. It has also lost a significant amount of military equipment sent to Syria, making this already a very painful loss.

Russia has reportedly already sought Turkey's help in getting back its soldiers there, not to mention its weapons, yet without reaching a formal agreement with Turkey.

Without an agreement with Turkey, Russia certainly cannot withdraw its soldiers from Syria in an orderly manner.

Another question is this: Who can Russia even reach an agreement with, and will those bases remain or not?

Preliminary information suggests that Syrian rebels or insurgents are not in agreement with this, as Russia has bombed a lot of areas there.

But we will see; in the Middle East, everything is possible.

Are negotiations and diplomacy still possible there?

Negotiations, diplomacy, money. Money, above all, because the new government practically has no sources of income. So, there is actually some room for maneuver, but this is speculation at the moment.

Could it also be the case now that Putin channels all his frustration into Ukraine, as there is nowhere else left to demonstrate his remaining power?

If Russia can create a narrative and show that the Russian army is not retreating or fleeing, then it will really be one kind of situation.

If a catastrophe occurs and it seems that the Russian army is leaving in a retreat, then it must compensate in some way for that.

Direct escalation in Ukraine is unlikely, but missile strikes and other symbolic shows of force could occur; this is entirely expected.

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