"There aren't many lieutenant generals in Russia. An officer of this rank is typically the head of a specific branch of the armed forces or in charge of a major regional command. Such a high-ranking officer is personally known to the president and the country's entire leadership," Rainer Saks commented on Tuesday regarding the killing of Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov and his aide in a bomb explosion in central Moscow.

This type of operation demonstrates that Ukraine can strike targets even at the highest echelons of Russian leadership, which is the most significant damage caused by this event. It underscores the failure of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) to prevent the attack. At the same time, the incident has reminded the public that Russia has been unable to bring Ukraine under its control after nearly three years of full-scale war, Saks noted.

The attack also highlights the need for the Russian leadership to bolster the protection of its officials. However, this adds further strain on the FSB, which is supposed to focus on internal security but is largely depleted due to the war. This depletion was also evident in the attack earlier this year on a concert hall in Moscow. Despite the attack occurring near an FSB base, it took hours for the FSB to respond because many of its units had been deployed to occupied territories in Ukraine.

Discussing Russia's potential response, Saks suggested that Moscow would likely frame one of its already planned attacks on Ukraine as retaliation for the general's assassination.

"They don't have anything extraordinary in reserve that they haven't already used. The only thing left is nuclear weapons, which they won't deploy. Everything else has already been utilized," he said.

Ukraine's special forces have conducted hundreds, if not thousands, of diversionary operations on Russian soil, leveraging their deep knowledge of Russia and existing contacts, the security expert explained. "The difference now is that they are permitted to use these capabilities. Before the full-scale war began, Ukraine is not known to have carried out any attacks on Russian territory," he added.

Peace talks likely next year

Commenting on the overall situation in the war, Saks stated that it has turned into a war of attrition, with the initiative currently in Russia's hands, and Ukraine has been unable to regain it. However, the Ukrainian military's incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast has shifted the political dynamics of the war, he added.

Another striking aspect, Saks noted, is the uncertainty and reluctance of Western countries to take strategic initiative. "This has become very evident this year," he emphasized. "The inability to take the initiative on a global political level and start putting pressure on Russia stems from the disarray in (U.S. President Joe) Biden's administration in 2024. The ongoing presidential transition has further deepened this uncertainty. If this doesn't change, it will be very difficult to expect the war to end quickly or under conditions that are even remotely satisfactory," he explained.

Saks also noted that while the likelihood of peace talks is increasing, the process toward them could still take a considerable amount of time. "But it is more likely than not to happen," he remarked.

"One factor contributing to this is that Ukraine has advanced its arms industry to the point where it is now effectively targeting strategic facilities on Russian territory with domestically produced weapons. Over the past two weeks, we've seen new strikes on Russia's oil and arms industries," Saks said. "If Ukraine can demonstrate its ability to inflict serious damage on Russia, and considering that Russia has significantly exhausted itself, this could be a factor leading to the search for negotiation opportunities by mid-year."

However, the format of these potential peace negotiations remains an open question, Saks added.

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