"The year has been one of attrition warfare. In our assessment, the Russian Federation has not achieved any significant success in military-strategic terms this year," Lt. Col. Janek Kesselmann said at a press conference.

"At the tactical level, it must be acknowledged that the enemy has maintained the initiative throughout the year, albeit at the cost of immense financial resources and significant personnel losses," Kesselmann noted.

According to Kesselmann, a major shift in the war has been Ukraine's actions in Russia's Kursk region. "Ukraine made a very important move in this war by attacking Russian territory in Kursk on August 6. It appeared that the Russian opponent struggled for a considerable time to respond adequately. However, by September, we began to see mounting pressure along all fronts. It must also be considered that Ukraine's decision to strike Kursk required resources and reserves. It is evident that the enemy's reaction to this action was to intensify their efforts," he explained.

The pressure on Ukraine, Kesselmann said, comes at the cost of unprecedented Russian losses. "An example from yesterday shows that the Russian Federation lost 2,200 soldiers in a single day. We confirm this information, as our data aligns with it. This is, of course, an unprecedented number of losses," he stated.

Kesselmann also highlighted a significant strategic change on the battlefield with North Korea's direct involvement in the conflict. "This represents a crossing of a red line set by Russia itself. Since the start of the war, Russia has tried to draw a line against the involvement of third parties in the conflict, but by engaging North Korea, it has crossed that very line," Kesselmann said.

"It is known that North Koreans are operating in the Kursk area and have suffered losses. Our assessments, though cautious, indicate about 100 killed and approximately 1,000 wounded, which is quite accurate," he added.

Kesselmann also touched on the collapse of the Syrian regime, saying that Russia's strategic footprint has been significantly reduced as a result.

Within Russia, Kesselmann described 2024 as a year focused on tackling corruption within the Ministry of Defense. "Although corruption is inherently part of the system in Russia, it seems that certain actions exceeding the system's framework have prompted a kind of purge, as we have seen in the Ministry of Defense," he remarked.

Regarding Russia's primary military focus, Kesselmann noted that it remains on the Donetsk front. "Russia has advanced about 30 kilometers over the past month. According to Russia's own battle regulations, the expected pace of advance on a main attack axis is 25 kilometers per day, or roughly a kilometer per hour. Clearly, Russia is unable to operate at its own prescribed pace. If Russia continues at this rate, capturing Ukrainian territory might only be possible in the final quarter of this century," Kesselmann said.

Discussing Ukraine, Kesselmann noted that the country has developed an impressive capability for deep operations. "And I am not only referring to Western support but also to Ukraine's significant ability to produce its own deep-strike tools. Russia has been struck within its own territory throughout the year," he stated.

Looking ahead to the new year, Kesselmann said he does not see Ukraine abandoning its strategic defense. "It is evident that Ukraine is capable of conducting strategic defense," he said.

However, he acknowledged the difficulty for Ukraine to carry out a strategic offensive against Russia. "For a strategic offensive to succeed, Western support would need to increase significantly. If Ukraine continues with a strategy of attrition, it would be a reasonable decision," Kesselmann concluded.

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