Russia is evacuating its troops and equipment from Syria following the success of the insurgents and the overthrow of its ally, Bashar al-Assad. Retired Maj. Gen. Neeme Väli noted that the exact amount of Russian military equipment in Syria remains unclear. However, two military bases are strategically important for Russia, and agreements with insurgents have reportedly been made to ensure their security.

"One is the naval base in Tartus, and the other is the airbase in Khmeimim. The naval base still hosts some ships, which had temporarily left the port but are now reportedly back. This makes sense, as there were reports that equipment and weaponry were being evacuated from the airbase to the naval base. Additionally, there's news that the Russians have allegedly managed to reach an agreement with the insurgents to initially guarantee the security of both bases," Väli said.

Väli added that Russian forces have been transferring military equipment from the airbase to the naval base for several days, including the removal of S-300 and S-400 missile systems.

"Transport planes landed at the airbase on December 7. If we consider likely scenarios, it seems they are preparing to abandon the airbase but aim to hold onto the naval base for as long as possible. However, everything depends on the agreement reached between the insurgents and the Russians," Väli explained.

The personnel stationed at the airbase was likely not very large, as they were responsible only for air defense and base security. "We're probably talking about hundreds of people," Väli noted.

Russia's withdrawal from Syria is unlikely to have a significant impact on the war in Ukraine, as Syria was more about prestige for Moscow, Väli said.

"What's happening in Syria is more tied to Russia's global reputation than to the situation in Ukraine. It's a different region altogether, and for Russia, this is politically and diplomatically significant if it wants to portray itself as a global influencer. It's a blow to their prestige rather than to their military capability," he said.

The events in Syria represent a political setback for Russia, Väli added.

"Russia has fallen into a trap of its own making. If you're not truly a global power and your capabilities are limited to a regional scale, trying to play in the big leagues with the major players will eventually expose that bluff. That's exactly what has happened in Syria," he remarked.

According to Väli, it's now important to monitor what unfolds in the region. "Other major powers also have interests there. Look at Turkey's ambitions, for example, as well as Israel's actions. And, of course, Iran. It's all interconnected on a larger scale," he concluded.

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