According to Reigo Kebja, a member of the Elering management board, it is currently quite difficult to predict when EstLink 2 will be repaired. "The honest answer is that, at this point, it is very challenging to provide a forecast [on when EstLink 2 will be operational again]. There are two significant uncertainties regarding the repair of the undersea cable, as all the information is still very fresh," Kebja said on Friday during the "Vikerhommik" program.

The first uncertainty, he explained, lies in the precise technical condition of the cable at the fault location.

"We know where the fault is, but in order to assess the actual condition of the cable, an on-site inspection needs to be conducted. Based on this inspection, the scope and scale of the required repair work can be determined," he said.

The second major uncertainty, according to Kebja, is the availability of a specialized repair vessel.

"There are very few such ships globally. Typically, these vessels are not sitting idle in ports waiting for faults but are booked two to three years in advance for various cable installation projects."

Kebja noted that the estimate proposed by Fingrid, suggesting that the undersea cable repair could take approximately seven months, is based solely on prior experience.

"However, the first step is to determine the extent of the repair work. On-site inspections will reveal how large a section of the cable has been damaged, which will determine how much of the cable needs to be replaced. After that, a plan must be devised for how the repair work will proceed 80 meters underwater. There are many tasks involved, and one critical factor is also weather conditions."

The potential impact of the estimated seven-month repair of Estlink 2 on electricity prices will depend on various factors, Kebja explained.

"For example, if the Baltic region sees an increase in renewable energy production, which helps keep electricity prices lower, the impact will clearly be smaller. Similarly, during spring, when snowmelt occurs, significant amounts of hydroelectric energy from Latvia could help stabilize electricity prices," he said.

In situations where renewable energy is unavailable and hydroelectric energy is also insufficient, electricity prices rise because the price in the Baltics is then determined by gas power plants and, in Estonia, oil shale power plants.

"To give a sense of the potential price impact, we can refer to a comparable scenario from last year, when EstLink 2 was also out of operation for an extended period. During that time, the average effect on electricity prices for residential consumers was approximately 10 percent," Kebja noted.

Kebja also assured that Estonia has no issues with security of supply.

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