The estimate is based on cable measurements, and the suspected fault location has not yet been physically verified.

On Thursday at 12:34 p.m., Fingrid updated its market message on the Nord Pool UMM platform, stating that based on previous experience, the fault is expected to be resolved by August 1, 2025. If the repair timeline changes, the market message will be updated accordingly.

The EstLink 2 fault does not hinder the planned disconnection of the Baltic states from the Russian-controlled frequency area and their synchronization with the Continental European electricity network, scheduled for early February 2025.

Elering confirmed that the Baltic states have sufficient controllable capacity and external connections to complete synchronization with the Continental European frequency area even without the EstLink 2 connection.

According to Elering, the EstLink 2 fault may impact electricity market prices in Estonia and other Baltic states.

When renewable energy production is high in the Baltic states, the Estonia-Finland connection has minimal influence on prices. However, price effects are more likely in situations with low renewable energy production, in which case prices depend on the operation of Baltic gas power plants and Estonia's oil shale power plants.

Based on data from the first half of this year, prices in the Baltic states are expected to be slightly higher than in the Nordic countries. However, during peak load periods, prices may be lower than in the Nordic countries, as Finland has also experienced deficits during peak demand, leading to electricity flowing from the Baltic states to Finland.

The disruption does not affect the security of electricity supply, as the system is designed to handle the loss of external connections at any time. System operators are prepared for such situations as part of their daily operations.

Elering reiterated that Estonia and the Baltic states have sufficient production capacity, reserves and import capabilities to meet domestic consumption needs.

Foreign minister: Finnish authorities investigating Eagle S

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna (Eesti 200) held a phone conversation with Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen to discuss the recent incidents involving underwater infrastructure.

"We must understand that damage to submarine infrastructure has become systematic and should be treated as attacks on critical structures essential to our societies," said Tsahkna.

According to the foreign minister, the investigation into the incident is still in its early stages. However, Finnish authorities have already brought the vessel Eagle S, sailing under the Cook Islands flag, to a Finnish port for further investigation. Preliminary data suggests the vessel had been operating with an unsecured anchor.

"In addition to evading sanctions, the shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea poses a security threat, and we cannot simply ignore this," Tsahkna added.

The EstLink 2 direct current connection between Finland and Estonia went offline on Wednesday at 12:26 p.m.

At the time of the disruption, the power transmission from Finland to Estonia was 658 megawatts. Fingrid reported shortly after the outage that the possibility of vandalism could not be ruled out.

Enefit Power: Estonia's dispatchable capacity standing by

All of Enefit Power's dispatchable power plants are operational and ready, said Lauri Karp, CEO of the Eesti Energia subsidiary. Karp assured that despite the EstLink 2 fault, Estonia's security of supply remains ensured.

Enefit Power's capacities are located in two sites: Auvere and the Balti Power Plant.

"Since demand is currently low – people are on vacation and industrial processes are also paused – there is no indication that prices will rise significantly in the coming days," said Karp.

"Enefit Power has been consistently ready to respond with all of its plants. We are prepared to operate continuously throughout January and February if needed," Karp stated.

He emphasized that Enefit Power's units are brought to the market in accordance with stock exchange rules. "If they are accepted on the market, we can produce electricity. If our plants are not accepted, those units will remain idle," Karp explained.

"The task of activating our plants from a supply security perspective lies with Elering," he added.

Karp noted that a more autonomous electricity system would certainly benefit Estonia.

"We must move forward rapidly with new controllable capacities that will help lower peak prices for Estonians. Additionally, we must continue developing the strategic reserve regime currently under parliamentary review, ensuring oil shale blocks remain available on the market until 2030, as they are still essential," Karp said.

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