The cause of the outage is currently unknown, Estonian transmission system operator (TSO) Elering announced Wednesday afternoon, adding that it and Finnish TSO Fingrid are working quickly to identify the issue.

Elering emphasized that the security of Estonia's electricity supply is guaranteed. Through the end of Thursday, the TSO will, if necessary, utilize reserve capacities available in the region to compensate for the electricity that was expected to be delivered via EstLink 2. These reserves are activated in such situations.

Should the fault take longer to resolve, beginning Friday, EstLink 2 will be substituted by other production facilities located within the region.

"The exact reserve capacities that will be activated depends on the market situation, but these reserve capacities exist in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania," Elering board member Reigo Kebja told ERR on Wednesday.

"In Estonia, there are various market participants, including in Ida-Viru County, who offer these reserves, but it's still highly dependent on the market situation," he continued. "For example, there are reserve power plants in Lithuania too, such as the Lithuanian pumped storage hydroelectric power plant, as well as hydroelectric plants in Latvia. Which power plant is activated will depend on the market situation."

At this stage, deliberate damage to the power cable cannot be ruled out, as they still lack sufficient information about the outage, but Elering is unaware of any suspicious movement in the area of the cable or its substations, Kebja added.

"Since this information is still so fresh, what I can confirm is that our people are out there 24/7, along with our partners from Finland, to figure out the cause," he emphasized. "Unfortunately, we also can't say when exactly that will happen."

The exact location of the fault is likewise still unknown, he added.

From Wednesday morning until the malfunction that caused EstLink 2 to shut down shortly after midday, electricity was being transmitted from Finland to Estonia at a capacity of 1,000 megawatts (MW).

Following the fault, only EstLink 1 with its 350 MW transmission capacity remained operational.

Yle: Russian 'shadow fleet' tanker in the area at time of fault

On Thursday, Yle.fi reported that during the breakage of the EstLink 2 submarine cable, the oil tanker Eagle S, sailing under the Cook Islands flag, was operating in the area. Additionally, a German data center operator has reported damage to the Helsinki-Frankfurt communication cable, which partially runs through the Baltic Sea.

According to information from the maritime traffic monitoring service Marinetraffic, the tanker Eagle S had noticeably slowed its speed at the time the cable damage was identified.

Based on monitoring data, a border guard patrol vessel directed the tanker away from the area near the Porkkala Peninsula early in the evening on Christmas Day. By early Wednesday morning, both vessels were still in the vicinity of Porkkala.

According to MarineTraffic, the oil tanker was en route from St. Petersburg to Egypt. The British maritime publication Lloyd's List, which covers maritime traffic, reports that the Eagle S is part of Russia's "shadow fleet."

The publication defines the shadow fleet as consisting of vessels over 15 years old whose true owners are unknown and whose sole purpose is transporting oil from sanctioned countries.

Helsingin Sanomat: Problems with Frankfurt-Helsinki cable

The German data center operator Hetzner also reported early Thursday that there were issues with the network connection between Germany and Finland, Helsingin Sanomat wrote on Thursday.

"There is currently a fault in the main network connection between Frankfurt and Helsinki. This may cause short-term latency issues. We apologize for any inconvenience and thank you for your understanding," the company stated in a press release.

No additional details have been provided about the fault, nor is there any information on whether it is related to the disruption in the power grid between Finland and Estonia.

It is highly likely that part of the cable is located in the Gulf of Finland.

Estonia's interior minister: Considering recent events, we are ready for anything

Interior Minister Lauri Läänemets (SDE) told ERR that information is currently limited for all parties involved.

"Until we've been on-site and determined what has happened – whether the fault is due to the cable itself, environmental conditions or a human-caused disruption – nobody can say anything definitive. However, given that we've had several incidents recently involving cables and pipeline connections, everyone is on alert," Läänemets said.

He added, "The Internal Security Service (ISS), in cooperation with the Finnish Security and Intelligence Service, will begin work as soon as a human cause is confirmed or at least suspected. Until ships have gone to investigate the site, it's too early to make any conclusions."

According to Läänemets, a meeting of European interior ministers is scheduled for January, where recent attacks on underwater infrastructure will also be discussed.

"If it turns out – and right now we have no information about the cause – that this is yet another human-caused incident and if it is found that a specific vessel is involved, then three cable disruptions in such a short period of time are hard to believe as mere coincidence. In my opinion, this requires much stronger action from European countries, particularly those surrounding the Baltic Sea, but also across Europe," Läänemets stated.

On Wednesday evening, the Government Communication Unit announced that the government would convene on Thursday to discuss the situation.

Cargo ship flying Hong Kong flag passed by Estlink 2 at time of fault

The Finnish publication Iltalehti reported that, according to MarineTraffic, the cargo ship Xin Xin Tian 2, sailing under the Hong Kong flag, was located above the EstLink 2 submarine cable on Wednesday.

The vessel was near the cable at 12:26 p.m., the time when the fault was detected by Elering and Fingrid.

Xin Xin Tian 2 departed St. Petersburg on Tuesday and, according to MarineTraffic, is en route to the Port Said harbor in Egypt.

Arto Pahkin, a representative of Fingrid, told Helsingin Sanomat that at least two vessels were near the cable when the fault occurred. Pahkin stated that testing of substations would be completed by Wednesday, and if no faults are detected there, the focus will shift to the cable itself.

Inspection of the submarine cable is set to begin on Thursday, with results expected by the evening, Pahkin added.

In Finland, along with Fingrid, the Border Guard and police are investigating the incident. On Wednesday evening, the police were designated as the public contact point for updates. However, as of 9 p.m., they had no new information to report.

The Swedish publication Aftonbladet also wrote that the second vessel near the cable during the time of the fault was Eagle S, which sails under the Cook Islands flag. Aftonbladet also noted that Xin Xin Tian 2 is a sister ship of the Newnew Polar Bear, which was involved in damaging the Balticconnector pipeline.

Costly shutdown earlier this year

EstLink 2 also shut down due to a fault this January, with repairs lasting until early September and costing over €30 million.

The power link's extended outage also ended up costing consumers in Estonia at the time. According to Elering, electricity prices during this period increased by 10 percent, meaning consumers paid approximately €18 more per megawatt-hour (MWh) during the outage.

Estonian state-owned energy group Eesti Energia estimates that with each passing month, the malfunction had an increasingly significant impact on electricity prices. For example, during the second quarter of 2024, the outage may have hiked electricity prices in Estonia by as much as €24 per MWh.

January's fault was attributed to an internal short circuit in the power cable itself, which may have been caused by the cable's complex positioning. Elering announced in September that they hoped to have a detailed analysis of what caused January's fault completed by the end of the year.

EstLink2 consists of converter stations in Estonia and Finland and a direct current line spanning over 170 kilometers between the southern and northern coast of the Gulf of Finland. Of this 170 kilometers, approximately 12 kilometers of the cable is located underground on Estonian soil, some 147 kilometers runs along the bottom of the Gulf of Finland, and around 14 kilometers runs as an overhead line on Finnish soil.

EstLink 2 has a transmission capacity of 650 megawatts (MW). Estonia and Finland's other electricity connection, EstLink 1, has a capacity of 350 MW.

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