ICDS director: Russia could cause a humanitarian disaster in Transnistria
Europe's gas supply is not at risk after Ukraine suspended the transport of Russian gas, but Moscow could create a humanitarian disaster in Transnistria and blame it on others, said International Center for Defense and Security Director Kristi Raik.
Russian gas stopped flowing to Europe via Ukraine last week after Kyiv ended the latest agreement signed in 2019. This ends a major energy route dating back to Soviet times, The Guardian wrote.
However, three years into the full-scale invasion Slovakia and Hungary still rely on Russian gas.
Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened to cut financial support for more than 130,000 Ukrainian refugees in retaliation, the BBC reported. Slovakia had been the main entry point and the country now stands to lose millions of euros in transit fees.
"Hungary and Slovakia are the countries that have recently been the most pro-Russian, and now they are expressing it in connection with the halting of gas transit," Raik told Sunday's "Ukraina stuudio." "Of course, their own economic interests are at play. To some extent, they are losing out because they can no longer consume as much cheap Russian gas."
She added that Europe's security of supply is not at risk.
"The European Union as a whole is managing well with the cessation of this transit, and for Russia, it is certainly a significant strategic loss — likely a long-term one," Raik said. "I do not see any possibility of restarting gas transit in the coming years."
Raik said the situation in Moldova and Transnistria is much more complicated. It can also have serious consequences for European Union members.
Transnistria is a mainly Russian-speaking territory of about 450,000 people, which split from Moldova in the 1990s as the Soviet Union collapsed.
Moscow historically shipped natural gas to the break away region free of charge but state energy firm Gazprom ended exports on January 1, Politico Europe reported.
Currently, Transnistria is receiving no gas from either Russia or Moldova, and Moldovan government officials say the region's leaders have also refused offers of humanitarian aid, including generators.
"One of Russia's strategic goals is to restore or strengthen its influence in Moldova and, of course, to maintain control over the Transnistria region, using it as a leverage tool," Raik said. "But this is now becoming more difficult for Russia. With the transit halted, Russia has lost one of its key tools of influence, which it has used to buy sway over Moldova as a whole."
She noted that Russia may try to create a humanitarian disaster and blame Ukraine and the United States for it.
"At the same time, a competing narrative has emerged, claiming that Russia is no longer a reliable partner," Raik added. "Regions or countries like Transnistria, which have been dependent on Russia, are now seeing that this dependency comes at a painful cost."
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Editor: Valner Väino, Helen Wright
Source: Ukraina stuudio