"Given Russia's focus on developing drone technology and integrating it into its armed forces, the threat posed by the Russian reconnaissance and strike drones for Estonia and NATO increases in the short term," the agency emphasized. "After the conclusion of active hostilities in Ukraine, Russia will likely use its drone warfare experience and insights into Western air defense systems to shape the development of its forces along Estonian and NATO borders."

The intelligence agency says Russia has launched a national drone development project, establishing 48 research and production centers across the country for drone manufacturing and development.

"Russia plans to allocate on average €1 billion annually to this project until 2030, with the aim of creating one million jobs for experts in the sector, who will be registered in a national electronic database. The project also includes the goal of integrating drone-related education into 75 percent of Russian schools," the report says.

According to its data, the Russian Ministry of Defense aimed to reach a production level of 100,000 drones per month by the end of 2024 to support its aggression against Ukraine.

"It remains unclear whether Russia achieved this goal in 2024, but available information indicates that monthly production volumes grew several-fold over the year. Furthermore, Russia is likely capable of scaling up its one-way attack drone production faster than Ukraine can strengthen its countermeasures," the EFIS noted.

The agency outlined how Russia has purchased drones from Iran and has also begun independently producing and developing one-way attack drones. It also emphasized China's role in Russian drone development.

"Russian drone production remains dependent on Western components. Their availability – including through intermediaries in China – facilitates Russia's aggression against Ukraine and poses a long-term security threat to Estonia," the agency wrote.

The EFIS described how Russia has set up networks to acquire essential drone components, constantly seeking ways to bypass Western sanctions. It does this by involving companies from various countries as intermediaries to conceal Russia as the final recipient of these components.

"As a result, the burden of ensuring compliance with sanctions falls more heavily on wholesalers than on the component manufacturers themselves," the agency noted.

Since an estimated 80 percent of Western components subject to sanctions reach Russia through China, this indicates that the weakest links in sanction enforcement almost certainly include not only manufacturers and wholesalers but also the Chinese branches of intermediaries, the EFIS stressed.

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What is the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service?

The main function of EFIS is to collect intelligence and to protect classified information.

The agency collects, analyses and delivers information on Estonia's external security threats. The information gathered by EFIS has a significant influence on Estonia's national defense and security policy making. EFIS is in the front line of national defense, as intelligence ensures early warning for events that pose a threat to us.

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