"In our assessment, Russia is highly unlikely to use nuclear weapons in the war against Ukraine, but observing how the fear factor has restrained the West thus far, Russia is exploiting it to the fullest. The war in Ukraine could have potentially been ended some time ago had the West seen through Russia's bluff," writes EFIS Director General Kaupo Rosin in the introduction to the report.

"As its resources for escalation dwindle, leading to frustration behind closed doors among the siloviki, Moscow will persist in exploiting nuclear fear. While the Kremlin's rhetoric on nuclear weapons is forceful, its actions do not mirror these ominous threats," Rosin noted.

As a example of Russia's intimidation, the report highlighted how Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a special regime for nuclear forces at the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, this did not translate into concrete action.

"Operational patterns and unit tasks remained unchanged, rendering the special regime meaningless. Throughout the war, Russia has announced multiple "red lines", such as Ukraine striking Crimea or receiving Western military aid like tanks, F-16 fighter jets, HIMARS or ATACMS. None of these scenarios has resulted in nuclear escalation," the report states.

The EFIS says Russia aims to influence Western policymakers by lowering the threshold for nuclear weapon use in its nuclear doctrine and continuing its intimidation tactics. These include seeking to deter support for Ukraine and prevent NATO from strengthening its defense capabilities near Russian borders.

"Intimidation has yielded some results; while Ukraine continues to receive support despite Russian threats, many countries have adopted measured approaches, creating self-imposed "red lines" that Russia can exploit," the agency noted.

At the same time, alongside its intimidation tactics, Russia is likely revising the role of its non-strategic nuclear weapons in practice. The report highlighted exercises in the summer of 2024, where Russia practiced practical elements related to the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons, including their transport, force protection measures, and actual use.

The EFIS said Russia has traditionally stored its non-strategic nuclear weapons in large national depots. In times of crisis or war, these weapons are moved closer to conflict zones or launch platforms into so-called local depots. The closest national storage facility to Estonia is 600 kilometers away, west of the city of Vologda, while the nearest local depot is in the Kaliningrad region, 400 kilometers from Estonia.

"The Kaliningrad depot, previously in disrepair, has been renovated and expanded, becoming a focal point for Russia's 12th Main Directorate (12th GUMO), which oversees nuclear weapons. In 2024, it was upgraded to a national depot, which positions nuclear warheads and delivery systems closer to the Baltic states and reduces the early warning time for potential use. This likely indicates a shift in Russia's threat perception, intended both to further intimidate the West and to allow for faster deployment if required," agency wrote.

Russia reviving Soviet "Nuclear Winter" propaganda

Russia also plans to launch a campaign in 2025 to instill fear in the Western about the possibility of a nuclear winter, similar to the USSR's actions in the 1980s.

"This effort is based on a scientific concept, widely discussed in the 1980s, which suggested that the use of nuclear weapons would trigger an artificial cooling of Earth's climate, with a drastic drop in temperatures leading to widespread famine and other catastrophic consequences. While once a popular scientific theory, the nuclear winter hypothesis was later heavily criticised for being based on flawed data, drawing arbitrary conclusions and suffering from ambiguity. It has since been revealed that the debate was sparked by a disinformation campaign orchestrated by the Soviet KGB to deter the US from deploying Pershing II missiles in Europe," the EFIS explained.

Now, Kremlin propagandists aim to revive the nuclear winter theory to instill fear in Western — and especially American – public opinion. The aim is to stop allies providing military aid to Ukraine.

"The Kremlin plans to launch a broader campaign that combines television with modern methods and platforms, such as YouTube, podcasts and carefully selected spokespersons with authoritative and "palatable" viewpoints. Their ideal strategy would be to recruit influential American science communicators to champion the nuclear winter theory. Similarly, in the 1980s, prominent Western scientists were enlisted to disseminate the idea, likely unaware of its KGB origins. According to our information, the Kremlin intended to wait for the outcome of the US presidential elections before fully (re) launching this campaign," the report says.

The spread of the nuclear winter theory in the 1980s created fertile ground for protests against Pershing II missiles. Hundreds of thousands rallied against NATO's decision to deploy ballistic missiles in West Germany to deter the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact countries

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What is the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service?

The main function of EFIS is to collect intelligence and to protect classified information.

The agency collects, analyses and delivers information on Estonia's external security threats. The information gathered by EFIS has a significant influence on Estonia's national defense and security policy making. EFIS is in the front line of national defense, as intelligence ensures early warning for events that pose a threat to us.

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