Given the changing security situation in Europe, governments need to extend the mandates of intelligence agencies across the continent, Rosin said at a panel of experts at the Munich Security Forum on Saturday (February 15).  

"It is not enough for the intel services to just observe and report. I think the intel services can do a lot more, we can also be more aggressive or active ourselves, [and] conduct our own active measures," he told the audience.

"This is a tool the politicians and the governments have /.../ but I think we have to be more aggressive in this world."

He defined "active measures" as: "Using non-military means in order to promote our security interests abroad, which then either delay, disrupt, stop activities or promote our goals, let's say, actively."

Wrong targets

Speaking about why there was disagreement among intelligence agencies that Russia was going launch an attack on Ukraine in 2022, Rosin said very few people within the Russian system understand what is going on.

"Do you have the right targets? Do you understand the enemy system?" he said. "The Russian system is huge, but there are very few guys who actually know what will happen in the future.

"So if you target the wrong places, the wrong organization, departments or people, you feel very confident that you have good access and a good flow, but the guys or the targets do not know the information you actually need. Most folks in the ministries have no clue about this. So I think that is a big lesson learned. You have to know the enemy first and do proper targeting before you attack, so to say."

Access to politicians

The official said he has the feeling that in some countries intelligence officers have different access levels to their politicians.

"Sometimes the politicians listen to the intel services and sometimes they don't, it depends on the political agenda. I think this played some kind of role in the Ukraine pre-war situation," he told the audience. "It is also hard to recognize something that has not happened yet."

Rosin said he has good access to Estonia's politicians. Policymakers need to know what is going on, what are Russia's intentions, what they are planning, how they see and assess the situation and economy.

He said officers and politicians need to look at what the intelligence is saying, rather than chasing narratives.

Hybrid-shmybrid

The official also dismissed the use of the term hybrid to discuss Russia's tactics.

"I think the word 'hybrid' is misleading and soft — hybrid-shmybrid. What's happening is attacks, cyberattacks, assassination plots, maybe in some parts it is actually state-sponsored terrorism," he said.

One way of deterring these attacks is to have a "proper mandate" to go after the people carrying them out, Rosin said. Estonian law also allows them to be punished.

Rosin cited the example of men unknowingly working on behalf of the Russian security services (GRU) who broke the car windows of Estonia's minister of interior in 2023.

"In Estonia you can send people to prison for nonviolent activity towards the Estonian public. So, that would mean in the information space, or cooperation with hostile services. It does not have to be espionage, no secret information has to be passed in order to have somebody convicted," he said.

"Those saboteurs go away for 4-5 years usually, for breaking a car window, if it's commissioned, let's say, by the GRU. It doesn't matter if he knows who he is actually working for or not. This is a deterrence element already. So if you can go away for five years and the money you earn for it is less than €1,000... it's just not worth it. And we can see in our case that this deterrence has some effect."

He added the government allows the EFIS to "use all the tools available" to do so, but this is not the case across Europe.

Rosin reiterated that governments need to do more to strengthen agencies' mandates: "In the current situation, my preference is [to] go hard because the Russians are at war with us and some of us are not at war with them. But weakness to Russians is only a provocation for them, I think."

You can watch the "(C)overt Custodians: Intelligence for the 21st Century" panel discussion here.

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