The annual report, laying out the risks and threats posed to Estonia, was released on Monday.

This year, the yearbook focuses on young people and the dangers posed to them by Russian influence operations and extremist groups. 

ISS Director General Margo Palloson wrote in the introduction: "The Kremlin's support base in Estonia, primarily consisting of older residents, is in decline. As a result, Russia is shifting its influence operations towards younger Russian-speaking Estonians. It is essential that we protect these young people from being swayed by Russian propaganda."

Kremlin-controlled information channels were restricted after the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, and influence activities have moved to social media, he said.

"Like a terrorist organization, spreading propaganda is as important to the Kremlin as organizing the attacks themselves," the director wrote.

"Deepfakes and manipulations driven by artificial intelligence and algorithms" are increasingly being used. This makes it harder for social media users to determine what is true or false and they can get lost in "trapped in echo chambers or disinformation loops."

"Critical thinking remains the only reliable antidote to this issue. The Estonian education system rightly prioritises the teaching of critical thinking and media literacy," Palloson said.

Russia's "concerted effort" to attract "impressionable" young people from neighboring countries is part of a long game, the report says: "These individuals can later be exploited for geopolitical purposes or used to influence politics in their home countries."

"Although this tactic has been employed for decades, it has not produced significant success in Estonia."

'Nothing comes without a price'

The report highlighted that Russia has once again started to "actively" offer "youth-focused propaganda events," which were temporarily halted after the start of the full-scale invasion.

These include "free online and in-person programmes, competitions, excursions and Olympiads designed to lure in young participants under the guise of legitimate opportunities." A trip to Russia is often the prize.

The ISS stresses there is nothing innocent about these freebies.

"It is important to remember that nothing comes without a price – Russia will demand something in return sooner rather than later. The key tactic is digital outreach to young people, enabling direct engagement that may go unnoticed by adults."

The report highlights the 'Memory Train" Russian-Belarusian propaganda project launched in 2022, and the sanctioned Artek children's camp in occupied Crimea, as examples.

The ISS said "youth recruitment" remains a "priority" of the Kremlin's strategy of division and embassies are often used to spread the message. This year, events will focus on the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two.

Russia's special services exploit academic freedom

The report also stresses the dangers of studying at universities in Russia.

"For decades, Russia's special services have exploited the principles of academic freedom in democratic countries to advance their own intelligence and influence operations," ISS writes.

It says universities "employ undercover officers primarily within their human resources and international cooperation departments." These are "key areas" where "intelligence-relevant information can be gathered."

"Western countries often underestimate the systematic and large-scale nature of intelligence operations within Russian academia," the agency says.

Russia takes a special interest in foreign students and researchers and is a "long-term endeavour."

"Almost all international research collaborations, as well as foreign students and lecturers at these institutions, are closely monitored. The level of scrutiny increases with the university's prominence," it says.

"What matters is not who the student is at present but who they may become in the future. These recruitment efforts are typically subtle rather than aggressive. A slow and deliberate web is woven around the target, making it increasingly difficult for them to withdraw. Often, the recruit is unaware of what is happening until it is too late."

Russia's brand is toxic

ISS bureau chief Harrys Puusepp said Russia has a "problem with its brand" and struggles to attract new people.

Attempts to target young people on social media often start with other topics such as IT, the environment, and climate. It is only are the real topics of interest are introduced, he told Monday morning's "Terevisioon."

Influence operations aim to push such young people further than they would otherwise go in the normal course of their lives, he said.

"This effort has been ongoing for years, but it has not been particularly successful for Russia. It also matters that those who previously aligned themselves with the Russian world did so for different reasons — until it became clear in 2022, when Russia attacked Ukraine. Quite a few of them stepped away because of that. Unfortunately, we still see that there are some who were not shaken by it and who have not been deterred from supporting Russia."

Russia is not the only danger to young people, and they may well be drawn, out of curiosity, to other forms of extremism.

"Today, there are people somewhere on social networks who are trying to pull young people into extremist activities. That is why it is important that we are able to notice this as early as possible, and prevention is a key part of our work."

The ISS yearbook also addresses Islamic extremism as well as far-right extremism. These issues can be interconnected.

"They have a mutually reinforcing effect. If one starts to rise, we can expect the other to grow as well. Fortunately, we are still talking about Islamic extremism from a preventive standpoint. True, in Europe the terrorist threat from Islamic extremism is high, but here it remains low. At the same time, there are signs that this could become a bigger problem here as well. We can still say that there has been no terrorist attack in Estonia, but people are looking for a foothold for extremism here too," Puusepp told the show.

This article was updated to add additional information from the yearbook.

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