The primary indicator of quality in Estonian schools is increasingly becoming the question: "How many children attend the school closest to their home?" The significant internal migration for education suggests that many families seek better-quality schooling further away, bypassing their local schools.

For years now, Estonian students' school commutes have been significantly longer than they should be. This trend presents serious challenges for both school network planning and education policy as a whole. Moreover, the intense movement between schools exacerbates socioeconomic stratification, creating a situation where high-quality education is not equally accessible to all.

Internal educational migration means that families opt for more distant schools when their local school does not meet their quality expectations or, particularly in more densely populated areas, when the nearest school has no available spots, forcing families to choose a school farther away. Therefore, we can talk about both voluntary and forced educational migration.

The most crucial school selection decisions occur when entering first grade and tenth grade — primary school and upper secondary school. These are the stages where the highest levels of educational migration can be expected. While proximity is a key criterion for choosing a primary school, academic performance and the school's reputation become the most decisive factors at the upper secondary level.

On average, 45 percent of primary school students and 59 percent of upper secondary students do not attend their designated local school. However, this figure varies significantly between municipalities. Migration is highest in urban areas and lowest in rural regions.

An analysis of intra-Tallinn educational migration reveals intriguing and telling patterns. The school race begins as early as primary school, where 53-70 percent of students do not attend their designated local school. This trend intensifies at the upper secondary level, with as many as 70-80 percent of students studying outside their assigned school district.

Top: How many students do not attend the primary school closest to home.

Bottom: How many students do not attend the upper secondary (high) school closest to home.

Student's road to school longer than it could be

A 2015 study by Statistics Estonia revealed that the average primary school student's commute was 3.2 kilometers. Although more than half of 1st to 3rd grade students lived less than a kilometer from their school, many still opted for a more distant institution. As a result, the actual school commute for a primary school student ended up being twice as long as it could have been.

Data from 2016 indicates that while the average commute for upper secondary school students was 15 kilometers, a third of them had a school located within two kilometers of their home. The median high school commute was 4.3 kilometers. Analyses and mapping by Statistics Estonia clearly demonstrate how the closure of high schools can shape regional student migration patterns — but not always. Each school and region has its own story and a unique impact on educational migration.

In larger cities, another factor that extends school commutes is parental "relocation" — meaning that when searching for a 1st-grade spot, families register their address with acquaintances living near popular schools. Statistics Estonia's 2017 data on Tartu compared the residential addresses of children before entering first grade and at the time of school enrollment. The findings showed a notable influx of students into Tartu city center schools, despite their previous residences being elsewhere. This creates a situation where children who actually live next to a school might not get a spot, forcing them to travel farther for their education.

Nearness to home not always the first criterion when picking a school

Studies show that when choosing a school, parents consider not only proximity but also the school's good reputation and strong academic performance. Equally important are a safe and supportive atmosphere, as well as additional opportunities such as extracurricular activities and accommodations for students with special educational needs.

Educational migration is highest in larger cities, where parents have more schools to choose from. In Estonia, Tallinn and Tartu have significantly higher educational migration rates than the national average, depending on the level of education. Moreover, the migration rates in the neighboring municipalities of major cities (such as Tallinn and Tartu) are also significantly above the national average, indicating that many students likely move to high schools in the cities. For example, municipalities near Tallinn — Rae (96 percent) and Raasiku (91 percent) — and those near Tartu — Tartu (70 percent), Kastre (66 percent) and Kambja (68 percent) — have exceptionally high rates of students enrolling in schools outside their home municipalities.

One of the key reasons why high school students from the neighboring municipalities of Tartu and Tallinn can commute daily to the cities is the well-developed public transport network. In contrast, rural students face a significant challenge in accessing distant high schools due to unreasonably long commutes.

A 2024 study on school and kindergarten selection among parents in Tallinn highlights that parents increasingly value schools that offer a safe, child-friendly and bullying-free environment. The results speak for themselves: nearly half of parents cite bullying risk and insufficient safety as their biggest concerns when choosing a school. Future generations of parents may prioritize the overall well-being and healthiness of the school environment — perhaps even more than academic performance.

This trend is further supported by a 2025 early-year study on children's mental health. Among other factors, school stress and bullying play a crucial role in the mental well-being of children and adolescents.

The latest PISA study also highlights challenges related to student well-being in Estonia. While Estonian students perform well in mathematics, their sense of belonging in school is low.

This sense of belonging was measured through questions such as:

• "I easily make new friends at school."
• "I feel that other students like me."
• "I feel lonely at school."

Ultimately, if social exclusion begins at school, its effects can be deep and long-lasting well into adulthood. This is why greater attention should be paid to the extent to which educational migration is driven by the search for a healthier learning environment.

What are the consequences of educational migration

Unequal burden on schools. As educational migration intensifies, it can lead to drastic changes in the school network — smaller schools may lose students, become economically unsustainable and face the risk of closure. At the same time, overcrowded schools may experience declining educational quality, as larger class sizes and limited resources make individualized instruction more difficult.

Longer school commutes. When children bypass their local schools to attend a more distant but higher-quality school, the school commute becomes a central part of the family's daily schedule. Education is not just about time spent in the classroom — it also shapes access to extracurricular activities and free time. Long commutes add extra hours in traffic, which can pressure parents, particularly mothers, to withdraw from the workforce or reduce their working hours.

Deepening socioeconomic stratification. A study from Sweden indicates that families with lower socioeconomic status prefer schools closer to home due to limited resources. Similarly, in Estonia, educational migration may exacerbate inequality, as studies on school efficiency show that children from wealthier families tend to cluster in the same schools. Consequently, if the nearest school is of lower quality, children from disadvantaged backgrounds face reduced future opportunities.

Worsening educational inequality. According to the OECD, educational equality does not mean that all students achieve the same results but rather that differences in outcomes are not dictated by background factors or socioeconomic conditions beyond students' control.

The 2022 PISA study found that for families with lower socioeconomic backgrounds, proximity and low school-related costs are the most critical factors. In contrast, wealthier parents tend to demand higher quality standards — both in academic performance and in the child-friendly environment of the school.

If affluent parents consistently place their children in better, more distant schools, it increases the risk of stratification, as less privileged schools may lack the necessary pressure to improve their quality.

In Estonia, educational migration may also extend to teachers, meaning that the best teachers gravitate toward certain schools, further intensifying educational stratification.

Impact on local government budgets. Education funding is often linked to a child's place of residence, meaning that some municipalities may lose or gain resources based on educational migration. On one hand, local governments are responsible for ensuring access to education, but when families migrate from the nearest school to what they consider the best school, it complicates future service planning. For example, a neighborhood school might end up nearly empty, even if there are plenty of children in the area.

Data background

• Primary schools: 73,709 students, 348 schools
• Upper secondary schools: 21,333 students, 124 schools
• Private schools not included
• Residence determined using a location index

Methodology:

• Commute distances calculated based on Estonia's road network (National Land Board)
• School data sourced from EHIS (Estonian Education Information System)
• Population data and data integration conducted by Statistics Estonia

Commissioned by: Foresight Center (Arenguseire Keskus)

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