Ministry of Defense lays down Estonia's national defense capacity roadmap

The Ministry of Defense has outlined the pace and types of capabilities that could be developed over the next four years if defense spending rises to at least 5 percent of GDP. Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur confirmed that it would certainly be possible to purchase one new ship and acquire more ammunition than originally planned.
Over the past month, the Ministry of Defense has been working to determine which key military capabilities could be developed within the next four years.
According to Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur (Reform), the Defense Forces' requirements have not changed in the meantime. Ammunition, air defense, long-range weapons systems, drones and ships are all still needed.
"There are many things that we'll never see on parade. These include communications and command systems — things that actually cost a lot of money but without which the EDF would not be effective," Pevkur said.
However, Estonia is in line for the same systems as other allies that also aim to strengthen their defenses. Pevkur said the current market conditions have been assessed realistically and alternatives have been explored. While he remained tight-lipped about exact figures and delivery timelines, he said that NATO capability targets would be met.
"There are definitely time constraints when it comes to achieving ballistic missile defense. There are also limits when it comes to modernizing certain ships — how many we can get and when — so in some areas time becomes a factor. But for example, one thing we definitely want to move forward sooner is ammunition," the minister said.
Pevkur added that the goal is to ultimately procure significantly more ammunition than the €1.6 billion already earmarked. Some of those purchases can be brought forward to this year. The same goes for a few other acquisitions, though they will not have a major budgetary impact. The main reason is that both manufacturers and Estonia have already finalized this year's procurement plans.
"This European Union defense exemption, which allows us to allocate and spend more money, actually started this year. So if defense procurement agencies manage to bring some of those purchases forward to this year, it would already put us in a very favorable budgetary position. But these aren't the kind of rockets you can pick up at Selver before New Year's," said Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform).
Developing new capabilities also means hiring more personnel. The defense forces would like to see their salaries set at least 30 percent higher than the Estonian average. It remains unclear how far the state is willing to go to meet that request.
The government wants to meet NATO's new capability goals as quickly as possible and has approved a supplementary national defense investment program called KILP. On average, Estonia will allocate 5.4 percent of its gross domestic product to national defense through 2029.
"The government's decision means that we will accelerate the buildup of Estonia's defense capability — on land, at sea and in the air," Prime Minister Michal said.
"Over the next four years, an additional €2.8 billion will be added to the defense budget. This is the largest increase in defense spending in recent history and will allow us to rapidly develop Estonia's air defense, boost the land forces' firepower, create deep-strike capabilities and put significant emphasis on drone warfare and electronic warfare development," Michal added.
In building up Estonia's defense capabilities, the government is basing its decisions on the military advice of the commander of the Estonian Defense Forces. This includes not only the capability targets set by NATO but also the lessons learned from the war in Ukraine.
"Every capability development decision is backed by calculations and market research, which will enable us to take additional accelerated steps over the next few years to strengthen our defense capability in today's complex security environment," said Defense Minister Pevkur.
"In addition to developing air, land and sea capabilities, we are also placing a strong focus on personnel and on areas of the armed forces that aren't visible in parades. This includes large-scale infrastructure projects, cyberdefense, drones, electronic warfare and more. With the agreements made today, Estonia is firmly defended and reaffirms its unwavering commitment to NATO," Pevkur said.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski, Johanna Alvin