Estonia's military leadership has clarified and accelerated its defense reform plans in response to growing security concerns posed by Russia, according to Karus told Vikerraadio on Wednesday, which is also Veterans' Day.

"The threat from Russia has increased sharply. We're seeing that now in the context of a potential ceasefire process being mediated by the United States. Russia has gained a great deal of confidence from this," he said.

"Once a ceasefire is reached, it could allow Russia to quickly bolster the capabilities of its newly formed units near our borders."

While Russia remains heavily engaged in Ukraine, Karus warned that a pause in fighting would give Moscow the strategic flexibility to shift focus and potentially test the readiness of NATO and Estonia's defense posture.

"This is why we've gone to the government with a clear message: we need additional resources," Karus explained. "Not only to carry out initial preparations, but to build the full structure necessary to respond if Russia decides to challenge our independence or NATO's collective defense."

The U.S. has been attempting to mediate a 30-day ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow for several weeks. While Ukraine has agreed, Russia has not. Washington is now threatening to withdraw from the process if no progress is made.

Karus' remarks come just a month after initial reform plans were unveiled by Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur and EDF Commander Maj. Gen. Andrus Merilo. Karus said those plans have since been refined to better address the rapidly changing security environment and ensure Estonia remains prepared for any escalation.

Estonia will raise its military spending from over 3.4 percent to 5 percent of GDP in the coming years. Updated defense plans include giving the EDF the firepower to strike behind enemy lines if necessary.

In 2022, at the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia pulled its troops away from the Baltic and Finnish borders, leaving these bases almost empty. But Estonia's politicians and military officials believe Moscow will start redeploying forces to its western borders if there is a significant pause in the fighting.

"These men will not go back to different parts of Russia to harvest the corn or do something else because the salary they are getting in the army is like five to 10 times more than what they could get in their hometown," Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur (Reform) told the Financial Times last month.

Last year, an investigation by Eesti Ekspress found that Russia is developing infrastructure at military bases close to NATO borders.

On Tuesday, Karus announced the EDF will open a base in Narva, close to Estonia's border with Russia. It will host between 200-250 soldiers and increase the military's presence in eastern Estonia.

A longer interview with Karus about the new base will be published later this week.

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