Despite Ukrainian progress over the past three years in first holding the capital, Kyiv, then ejecting invading Russian forces from Kherson and the Kharkiv area — as well as launching a successful incursion of their own into Russia's Kursk oblast — the stakes may now be higher than ever.

At the same time, Maj. Gen. Karus said: "I must say that Ukraine still has a very real chance of emerging victorious from this conflict."

"Russia can be defeated. The real question is whether we have the perseverance and courage to consider: What would happen if Russia were to collapse?" he went on, speaking to ETV show "Ukraina stuudio."

While aid to Ukraine from democracies has been a heavily covered topic, Russia, too, has been receiving assistance from undemocratic countries friendlier to it.

"Russia is clearly receiving assistance from China, Iran, and from North Korea — some weapon systems and ammunition are coming from there. In Ukraine's case, the key factor is the contribution that Western allies add to what Ukraine itself produces," Karus said.

"Another aspect is that we tend to underestimate the Russians as being simple-minded. I think the past three years have demonstrated that they adhere closely to their doctrines. What they are currently executing along the entire front, especially in areas where they aim to achieve something, is purely doctrinal warfare."

However, Karus noted, it has not been plain sailing for the invaders; adherence to doctrines has come at massive human cost, for instance.

"This war has certainly drained some of their resources, limiting their ability to conduct so-called multi-domain warfare," he said.

Ironically, this in part relates to Ukraine's place in the Soviet Union.

"The top players and companies in the Soviet military-industrial complex were based in Ukraine. Ukraine has always had a production base and a training base," which means this can also be repurposed towards the modern world and modern warfare.

The past three years have, Karus said, been defined by two key terms: Wartime economy and innovation.

While Russia has mobilized the first of these, albeit at the expense of, for instance, soaring inflation, Ukraine is catching up, especially in developing drones and missile technology.

"The question is how much Ukraine could redirect resources from warfare to innovation and rapidly kickstart its military industry — even in a garage if necessary. This aspect is crucial in neutralizing enemy assets or securing even a small tactical advantage," Karus went on.

"Since they seem capable of recruiting people at the moment, this allows them to continue these tactics."

While the war's outcome remains uncertain, Ukraine's ability to resist Russia's military pressure depends not only on its resilience but also on sustained Western support.

While Russia's potential collapse could significantly reshape the European security landscape, the broader question remains about the war's sustainability, three years on.

The slow gains in territory over time Russia has been making, for instance through much of 2024 and mostly in the east, can be attributed not only to Russia's persistence but also to delays in Western support for Ukraine, Karus went on.

Herein lies the key, however: The outcome also depends on the support both Russia and Ukraine receive from their allies, Karus concluded.

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