Statements from Russian politicians do not provide any reason for optimism that Moscow genuinely wants to negotiate with the U.S. to end the war in Ukraine, Kannik, a former ICDS chief and now a member of EU High Representative Kaja Kallas' office, added.

Russia has not backed down from the demands it presented at the end of 2021, just prior to the full-scale invasion, he noted.

Speaking to "Esimene stuudio," Kannik said: "Russia has been open and consistent in its talking points."

"It has not backed down on its stance since December 2021 that Ukraine's statehood must essentially be dismantled, that Ukraine must either become entirely a part of Russia or come completely under Russian control, and that NATO must return to its pre-1997 borders."

Estonia joined NATO in 2004, while the invasion prompted Finland and Sweden to join the alliance too.

"Since the start of this full-scale war, NATO's borders have actually moved significantly eastward — Finland and Sweden have joined NATO."

This does not mean that Russia has not doubled down, however, despite costly losses in its advances made in eastern Ukraine through 2024, a loss of part of its own Kursk oblast, and deep-seated economic structural issues.

"I believe Russia will back down from its positions only when it is no longer able to continue fighting. Unfortunately, that moment has not yet arrived," Kannik went on.

"In my view, Russia may be interested in playing the negotiation 'game,' but at this point in time, they are not interested in substantive negotiations or seeking compromises," he added.

This means that, according to Kannik, U.S. President Donald Trump's claim that a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine could happen as soon as the next few weeks is unrealistic, not least because the U.S. has not been showing the requisite strength towards Russia.

"There are no signs that Russia is ready for any serious negotiations. And although the U.S. has emphasized that it wants to conduct peace talks from a position of strength, I have yet to see this projection of power directed toward Russia. In a situation where Russia is not being forced into serious negotiations, it certainly will not give in," said Kannik.

Kannik also stressed that Russia and the U.S. in any case cannot agree on a ceasefire without Ukraine's involvement.

"Otherwise, it would simply be an agreement between two countries, one of which is not even directly involved," he said.

According to Kannik, European countries have internalized the fact that they need to take more responsibility for their own defense, given the U.S. has, since Trump entered office last month, warned it will be stepping down its role in protecting Europe.

"This situation, where there is a rather tense debate among allies, is not a pleasant one. Yet the only way to overcome it is for Europe to take more responsibility onto itself — to be stronger, to find funding, and bolster its own defense," he said.

"It seems that Germany, France, and Italy have also grasped this — it is clear that if the U.S. role in Europe's defense falls away, then the role of Europe's major powers must rise," Kannik said, referring to several European countries' stated plans to increase defense spending.

According to Kannik, European officials are trying to communicate as much to their American counterparts too.

"I believe that in discussions between European and U.S. officials, there are always two key takeaways from Europe: That Europe is ready to take on a greater role in its own defense than before, and that the U.S. should be more cautious in its own negotiations with Russia."

Apparent naivety on the part of the Trump administration is also at play.

"Russia's current leadership is not to be trusted, and excessive concessions toward Russia are a sign of weakness—negotiations with Russia on this basis will not work," Kannik summed up.

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