This is the case even though, as far as is known, no guarantees are currently written into the agreement.

Saks made his remarks as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is set to meet his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump on Friday, to sign a minerals deal which is aimed at Ukraine's reconstruction.

U.S. President Donald Trump said of the likely mineral resources agreement with Ukraine that it would provide Kyiv with supplies and the scope to continue the fight, as the full-scale Russian invasion of the country enters its fourth year.

Speaking to "Ringvaade," Saks said: "This should be seen in the context of there being no restrictions on the use of weaponry the U.S. is willing to provide to Ukraine. Plus this is an implicit threat towards Russia."

At the same time, the phrase Trump used: "The right to continue fighting" is, in Saks' opinion, more of a personal remark by the POTUS.
"Ukraine certainly isn't asking them for permission," Saks said.

While Ukraine had hoped that the mineral agreement would come with security guarantees, so far as is known, these are not present. However, according to Saks, this does not mean that Ukraine will be left entirely without U.S. security guarantees in any case.

"I can also understand the U.S. not wanting to provide security guarantees to Ukraine through this agreement. But the logic of the agreement is such that, if it ever actually comes into effect, the U.S. must, in any case in some form guarantee Ukraine's security.

"There is also the point that, since the U.S. is a nuclear power, a security guarantee from a globally deterrent nuclear state would be a major advantage for Ukraine — something that Europe cannot provide. However, ultimately, no serious negotiations have begun yet," Saks added.

The mineral resources agreement is at the same time a diplomatic victory for Ukraine, Saks said, and a fundamental step toward the possibility of peace negotiations beginning in the near future.

"If the U.S. president and the Ukrainian president sign this minerals agreement, it will represent a minor diplomatic victory for Ukraine. It will strengthen Ukraine's position significantly vis-à-vis Russia. I think this is a very major step, or a fundamental first step, toward initiating some kind of negotiation process in the near future."

On the negative side, Saks said that the U.S. president is very keen to publicly announce different steps, and Russia has been taking advantage of this. For example, Trump has said that U.S. and Russian delegations will meet this week, but according to Russian authorities, they know nothing about that.

"This is the problem — Trump needs to show that something is happening, that there is some agreement, meaning it is a step forward, and allowing him to show that he is engaged. This is a weak point, especially in relations with Russia. Russia is taking advantage of this, and the U.S. is suffering considerably as a result," Saks concluded.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has announced that the agreement with the U.S. will establish a joint reconstruction fund, with Ukraine contributing 50 percent of its natural resource revenues while the U.S. provides financial support.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy will meet Trump in Washington on Friday to sign the agreement, though tensions over the deal persist. The two leaders have differing views on its substance, for one thing: While Zelenskyy insists a ceasefire is impossible without security guarantees and hopes for a roadmap towards NATO, of some kind.

Trump has ruled out U.S. security guarantees beyond limited support and suggests Ukraine should "forget about" joining NATO.

The deal would, however, provide: "$350 billion, military equipment and the right to continue fighting," Trump said.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin has said he is open to offering the U.S. access to rare minerals in Russia too, and also from Russian-occupied Ukraine.
U.K. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is due to meet Trump and Zelenskyy separately to discuss the war in Ukraine.

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