Ukraine will keep fighting, while Russia's stance hinges on battlefield realities, he said.

Saks made his remarks at a time when Donald Trump's U.S. and Vladimir Putin's Russia have been holding peace talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, but excluding Ukraine.

Speaking to ETV politics show "Esimene stuudio" Tuesday, Saks said: "If the U.S. thinks it can force Ukraine to accept a deal it has agreed upon with Russia, it is mistaken."

"In that instance, Ukraine will continue fighting. I am not sure the U.S. fully understands that; some members of the U.S. negotiation team have never even set foot on Ukrainian soil during their careers. So there is still uncertainty on this," Saks went on.

"Without including Ukraine, this process cannot move forward, not even in its initial phases. So I am not concerned that something will happen over Ukraine's head. However, much will depend on the Ukrainians themselves and those who support Ukraine," he added.

Thus, any expectations that agreements made solely between Washington and Moscow could determine Ukraine's future are misplaced, Saks noted.
In reality, the U.S. under Donald Trump is wanting to telegraph its desire not to be the main pen-holder for Ukraine; this would mean Europe automatically cannot be excluded either.

"The U.S. wants to send the message that it should not be expected to take responsibility for Ukraine's security. This is the real message. So the idea that Europe cannot participate in the negotiations is nonsense. That is not viable," Saks continued.

All of this means there is no concrete peace process to speak of, yet.
"I would argue that there is no real peace process or plan yet on how it will proceed—it is only now beginning to be formed," Saks went on.

"Two countries cannot agree on such a matter alone. The U.S. approach suggests that it probably lacks a clear strategic plan. I can highlight two elements. First, the U.S. wants to take the initiative. During the previous administration, several conflicts escalated. Trump has said he wants to de-escalate them."

"The second dimension is more complex, and there is a clear lack of strategic vision. What does the U.S. see for the future? It is very focused on protecting its own interests under the current leadership. In my opinion, they are greatly overestimating their capabilities," Saks added.

"In practice, this will not play out as they expect, as emotions are currently overriding rational thinking and calculations," he said.

For the Kremlin, developments represent a major victory in simply being able to return to the negotiation table with the U.S. after several years' absence; Moscow is likely to push for its advantage by introducing new demands that have not yet been publicly stated, Saks noted.

And while the U.S. engages in diplomatic talks, the balance of power on the battlefield remains the real factor that will shape negotiations.

At the same time, Washington and Moscow may still attempt to establish a framework for future talks, Saks noted.

He said: "As for Ukraine's peace plan, the U.S. and Russia might agree on a 'roadmap' outlining how to reach a peace agreement. Additionally, these meetings are certainly used to test each other's boundaries."

Saks also noted that if Russia realizes Ukraine has the potential to continue fighting and avoid defeat, their stance in negotiations will certainly begin to soften.

Additionally, "There is some internal pressure [within Russia] to use this opportunity to find a resolution," he added.

However, while Putin's red lines are clear — territory being his top priority, meaning he is unlikely to make concessions on the occupied territories, Saks stopped short of suggesting that a breakthrough is imminent.

"The fact that they arrived so quickly at such a high-level meeting [with the delegation] — well, they are certainly afraid of Trump, but not so much that they need to rush," Saks concluded.

Reuters reported the U.S. and Russia are holding peace talks in Riyadh, aiming to end the Ukraine war, but excluding Ukraine from the table.
Both parties have agreed to form high-level teams for further discussions and restoring diplomatic missions. Trump reportedly remains confident about the talks and plans to meet Putin by month's end.

Russia has rejected the idea of any NATO peacekeeping forces in Ukraine.
Ukraine, meanwhile, insists on being included in any deal, while Russia demands NATO cancel its 2008 promise of Ukraine membership.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has postponed a planned visit to Saudi Arabia to avoid legitimizing the ongoing talks.

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