A European Perspective is an editorial collaboration connecting European Public Service Media. Find out more here.

Content for this story has been provided by: AFP (France), BR (Germany), CT (Czechia), Franceinfo (France), ERR (Estonia), ERT (Greece), LSM (Latvia), LRT(Lithuania), RTBF (Belgium), RTE (Ireland), RTP( Portugal), Suspilne (Ukraine) and SWI swissinfo.ch (Switzerland)

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Three years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, millions of Ukrainian refugees across Europe find themselves living in a state of uncertainty. As international support wanes and living costs rise, many are facing mounting challenges — from bureaucratic hurdles to dwindling social benefits — forcing some to make an impossible choice: stay and struggle in foreign lands or return to a homeland occupied by Russia.

"There's a lot of talk about the war ending soon. We all want that, of course. But the war is still on going, and my biggest fear is that the support we all felt at the beginning, which we still feel, will diminish," says Nataliia K., who fled Kyiv for Czechia three years ago, speaking to CT reporters for A European Perspective. Nataliia's concern reflects a growing challenge for Ukrainians trying to rebuild their lives in Europe.

In June 2024, the Council of the European Union extended the temporary protection mechanism for Ukraine refugees — initially triggered on March 4, 2022 — until March 2026. This system guarantees beneficiaries the right to residence, access to the labour market and housing, medical assistance, social welfare support, and education for children.

However, three years after the beginning of the conflict, the support system set up for Ukrainian refugees shows signs of weakening across Europe. And that's left the many Ukrainians who have fled the conflict in an uncomfortable position.

More Ukrainians returning home despite risks

On February 14, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) revealed in a report that declining international support as living costs continue to rise is driving many refugees into "severe hardship." That, the organization said, is pushing many refugees to return home "not by choice, but by necessity."

"We have seen governments (apply) the temporary protection directive in a more restricted way, which does lead to new levels of vulnerability," Madeleine Lyons, one of the report's authors, tells AFP. For instance, in December, the Swiss parliament decided to limit the protected status given to Ukrainian refugees to just those who came from areas occupied by Russian troops or regularly shelled. These limits are not yet in force as the Swiss government is deciding how to implement them.

Meanwhile, on January 1, 2025, Estonia has tightened regulations for Ukrainians seeking healthcare in the country, ERR reports.

"We have been watching vulnerability creeping up over the past three years," Madeleine Lyons says, pointing in particular to how many elderly refugees are facing swelling debt levels. The report found that half of the refugees who returned to Ukraine are currently in debt, with around 12 percent unable to repay what they owe. It also highlighted the fact that refugees were deciding to return to Ukraine to seek vital healthcare as a troubling sign.

5,08 million Ukrainian refugees in European countries

According to the latest data by the UNHCR collected by RTVE for A European Perspective, 5,08 million Ukrainians have fled to European countries. Most are women, children, and elderly, as men of military age are required to remain in Ukraine.

About half of the Ukrainians who have left the country now live in Poland, Germany and Czech Republic. In per capita terms, Czechia has taken in the most, with 35.7 Ukrainian refugees per 1,000 residents, followed by Poland (27.1) and Estonia (25.8).

"If you go back to February 2022, tens of thousands of refugees were pouring through the border. There was this huge outpouring of government and civil society support," Matthew Saltmarsh, a spokesperson for the UNHCR tells A European Perspective.

"Three years on, it's quite different. I think the spirit of welcome is still there. But it's much more difficult now, and the longer people stay, the harder it is — economically and socially."

A shift in public sentiment

Take Poland. The country says it has spent over 7.4 billion PLN under the temporary protection mechanism to support Ukrainian refugees — and that ordinary Poles have spent even more than that out of their own pockets to help those fleeing the conflict.

Yet strains on the country's housing, education, and healthcare systems are leading to a shift in public sentiment, Radio France reports. A recent survey by the opinion research institute CBOS confirms this trend: while over 90 percent of Poles supported accepting Ukrainian refugees after the war began in 2022, this figure has now decreased to 53 percent. Earlier this year, the country's Prime Minister Donald Tusk publicly supported a proposal by Warsaw Mayor and presidential candidate Rafal Trzaskowski to restrict aid to Ukrainians refugees. Suspilne reports that the proposal was specifically focused on limiting the child benefit only to Ukrainians who work and pay taxes in the country.

Declining public support can also be witnessed in other parts of Europe. In December, an opinion poll in Lithuania found that Lithuanians who welcomed Ukrainians into their homes three years ago are now more hesitant to do so and just under half of those polled said they would now rent to Ukrainians. Meanwhile, LSM reports that the willingness of Latvians to accept Ukrainian refugees has also decreased significantly. The support rate, which was 73.5 percent at the end of 2022, has dropped to 46.8 percent by December 2024.

Employment difficulties

The backlash to the support paid to Ukrainian refugees is often due to the perception that they are a drain on a country's limited economic resources. This is what led the mayor of Bad Griesbach, in Bavaria, to ban his administrative staff from registering Ukrainian refugees in October, BR reports.

Yet some European countries have found that displaced Ukrainians have contributed significantly to their economies. Revenues generated by Ukrainian citizens in Czechia has surpassed the state's spending on their integration support since the second half of 2023. In Latvia, the number of Ukrainian refugees who have become taxpayers has tripled in three years, marking a notable increase in workforce participation, according to LSM.

However, the data suggest that many Ukrainians are working below their qualifications. In Latvia, LSM met with Anna, a mother of two who struggles with the language barrier to work in her field. "In Ukraine I work in an aviation factory as a control specialist, but of course I can't work in my speciality here unless I know the language," she said. "Now I can work as a cleaner or a janitor."

As living costs continue to rise across the continent, many are experiencing financial strain due to lower wages. According to the IFRC report, 42 percent of the Ukrainians citizens returning home cite employment difficulties abroad as the reason for going back.

At the same time, the recent decision by the US government to freeze foreign aid has put further pressure on refugee support networks. LSM has reported that a project organized by Riga's city council to help Ukrainians assimilate has already been halted, while some Latvian NGOs have had to turn to new sources of funding. The funding freeze has also affected humanitarian organisations that receive US foreign aid in countries that border Ukraine, like Poland, which welcomed more than one million Ukrainian refugees after the start of Russia's all-out invasion three years ago. "From one day to the next we had to withdraw our staff from projects," a humanitarian official in Warsaw told RTÉ News.

"Since 2022, we can't plan anything"

All of this has left displaced Ukrainians facing an uncertain future. As the months stretched into years, returning home feels increasingly out of reach. Many find themselves torn between starting a new life abroad and longing to return to a country still at war. The weakening support from host countries has only complicated this choice. "Among us Ukrainians, we say: 'Since 2022, we can't plan anything.' We don't even try anymore. We all made plans at the beginning of 2022, and we all know how that turned out." Nataliia K shares with CT reporters in Prague.

According to Matthew Saltmarsh from the UNHCR, surveys consistently show that most refugees intend to return home. "However, when they are asked: 'do you intend to go home very soon, then the numbers fall significantly," he explains.

In Estonia, ERR reporters asked the question to Polina, one of the 34,000 refugees installed in the country. "I don't know how to answer the question of whether I want to go back, because I have nothing left there – I would have to start again from scratch," she says.

Fourteen-old Pavlo, who has now spent three years in Switzerland, feels similarly torn. "In Ukraine, my friends, my grandparents and my father are waiting for me. But I'm starting a new life here," he told RTS reporters. 2,000 kilometers to the north, Anna M. from Mariupol is raising her young daughter in Sweden. She explains to Swedish Radio reporters that her next steps will depend on news of her husband, who was captured on the frontline.

Meanwhile, three years after she fled Odessa with only her cats, laptop and camera, Anastasiia V. in Brussels is still struggling to imagine her future. "No matter how hard I try to hold on to something that resembles my old life, it can never be. In the future, maybe I will be a functioning member of society here while very often visiting my home. Or I will find a job where I can contribute to restoring my country. We will see. For now, I am studying the language and searching for jobs. That's it."

"I think this is the main thing about refugees: we have short-term goals."

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A European Perspective is an editorial collaboration connecting European Public Service Media. Find out more here.

Content provided by: AFP (France), BR (Germany), CT (Czechia), Franceinfo (France), ERR (Estonia), ERT (Greece), LSM (Latvia), LRT(Lithuania), RTBF (Belgium), RTE (Ireland), RTP( Portugal), Suspilne (Ukraine) and SWI swissinfo.ch (Switzerland)

Additional reporting by Martin Sterba (Česká televize), Catherine Tonero (RTBF), Sara Badilini (EBU), Olga Sosnina (Swedish Radio).

Data: RTVE

Research and coordination: Sara Badilini, Luis Garcia Fuster, Michelle Hough, Martin Sterba

Sub-editor: Kim Gittleson (EBU)
Project management: Alexiane Lerouge (EBU)
Illustration: Ann-Sophie De Steur

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