On Friday morning, after a week of defense spending announcements, Merilo and Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur (Reform) briefed the public on activities being taken to strengthen Estonia's defense sector and the threat assessment concerning Russia.

Estonia is acquiring new weapons systems and soldiers' training needs to be adjusted with their introduction to the EDF, said Merilo. This will lead to changes in the current conscription model. Estonia's combat drills also differ from those observed in the war in Ukraine, which need to be adapted.

To make these changes, the EDF will temporarily reduce the number of conscripts for one year from almost 4,000 to 1,200 in 2026. This will allow for further training for active-duty personnel and instructors. Merilo called this a "risk-free solution."

"This will free up some of our active-duty personnel so they can conduct additional training, refine training methods and plans, focus on preparing for their wartime tasks, and dedicate more attention to preparing their wartime units, meaning reservists," the commander explained.

In 2027, the EDF will transition to an updated conscription model which includes combat readiness duty.

"Carrying out combat readiness duty naturally depends on the security situation. If everything goes well and the threat from Russia recedes, we will be in a good position. If things do not go so well and our current forecast holds true, we will be significantly better prepared," Merilo explained.

From 2027, conscription service will be extended from eight months to 12. The EDF will accept new recruits in winter and summer and scrap the current eight-month autumn stint.

Merilo said the goal is to ensure that combat-ready units are available at all times.

He stressed that changes to the conscription model do not pose risks to military readiness but instead allow for a significant leap in quality.

500 unfilled positions in the Defense Forces

There are currently 500 vacant positions in the EDF and new efforts need to be made to recruit more active-duty personnel and retain those already in service, Merilo said.

The commander of the Defense Forces told the press conference that many active-duty personnel will be retiring in the coming years: "They have all made significant contributions, dedicating their lives to the Defense Forces, but unfortunately, this is an inevitable part of life. This puts additional pressure on us to train the next generation."

The EDF will increase recruitment to the Academy of Security Sciences and starting this year, it will be possible to enroll in the military college immediately after completing the basic soldier course.

"All those who join conscription in the July intake this year can already start considering and indicating their interest in enrolling at the Academy of Security Sciences right after completing the basic soldier course, as early as this August," Merilo said.

Salaries for active-duty personnel are also being reviewed.

"Investing in people means we must reassess the career and salary structures for active-duty personnel, as well as various motivation systems, and strive to better balance today's workload with the benefits received. We must ensure that active-duty personnel maintain the physical capacity to serve for a long time. At the same time, we must also retain knowledge and skills within the system, especially considering the current and ongoing technological developments," the commander said.

Pevkur: Security situation depends on Ukraine conflict

Intelligence assessments from Estonia and its allies show the security environment is influenced by whether the war in Ukraine ends or is frozen, said Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur. This will directly affect how Russia behaves in the coming months and years.

"The fact is that since the new U.S. administration took office, various scenarios for pausing or ending the war have accelerated. Consequently, our threat assessments are also linked to this," he said.

It is understood that if military activity in Ukraine stops, Russia will deploy new units near the Baltic states and Finland according to its army reform plans, the minister told the assembled media.

Pevkur highlighted that Russia's military is currently about 2.5 times larger than it was before the start of the full-scale war in 2022. There are also plans to increase it to 1.5 million troops. Russia's current defense spending has exceeded 9 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP).

The defense minister stressed that Estonia is always prepared to defend itself at any moment.

"To deter Russia and prevent this war. To ensure that Estonia never faces the need to defend its territorial freedom with weapons, we must take certain steps to deter the adversary and show our allies that we are doing our part, and they must do theirs as well," he added

Merilo: Russian soldiers can be quickly redeployed if war stops

Estonia is not currently facing a direct threat as Russia is engaged in combat operations in Ukraine, Merilo emphasized.

However, he noted Russia has about 700,000 troops engaged in battle in Ukraine, a significant number of whom could be redeployed if the conflict comes to a halt.

"These are units that are armed, equipped, and have combat experience. If there is even a temporary pause in fighting, accompanied by security guarantees, Russia will have the opportunity to withdraw 250,000–300,000 ready units from there," the commander said.

Additionally, he told the press conference, Russia does not need recovery time to redeploy troops: "The only question is how many trains they have available, how many wagons they have to move to the next location, and the distance is not very far."

Merilo said that in the current security situation, risks cannot be accepted, but that does not mean war is inevitable.

"This needs to be understood, but we must be ready, if these movements happen or certain conditions are met, we must stay one step ahead. That is why we need to make significant short-term efforts. The Defense Forces will take the necessary steps that I briefly outlined because this must be done in any case to fulfill our tasks which are solely focused on making aggression impossible."

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